Why XI has the advantage over Trump. The White House erroneously calculated the balance of power in the war of customs duties with China.

When you're not sure, use uppercase. “No one escapes,” Donald Trump insisted on Sunday, in a rather confusing clarification of his announcement that the US will exempt phones and other electronic goods from customs duties, writes Financial Times in an opinion signed by Gideon Rachman, editorialist-chief on external business issues.

That exception was the very change of a measure announced last week: “mutual” taxes of 145% on all imports from China-and in turn a spectacular increase of taxes announced only a few days before. Are you with me?

An uninitiated observer could think that all these sudden changes in fiscal policy are the proof that the White House is chaos. Trump's admirers do not agree. Financing Bill Ackman greets an anterior 180 -degree turning with wheel ash as “brilliant executed […] By the manual, the “art of negotiation” “.

Trump's most focused supporters continue to insist that he is a master of the strategy. Anyone affirms something else risks being accused of being a diefrome Trump Syndrome [o antipatie irațională față de personaj – n.trad.].

Unfortunately I am still sick of TDS. (The vaccine was forbidden.)

In my mind my fever seems that Trump has a much worse hand than he imagined in the Customs Tax Poker game. And the more he will take Trump to admit this, the more he will have to lose the US.

The presumption from which Trump started and his commercial warriors is that China would be automatically disadvantaged in a conflict of customs duties. Scott Bessent, the secretary of the treasury, argued that China “plays with a pair of two […] We export them a fifth of what they export us, so for them it is a staining hand. “

Trump and Bessent's deficiencies are clearly explained in an article recently published by Adam Posen in Foreign Affairs magazine. Posen points out that China exports much more to the US than vice versa is actually an advantage for her – not a weakness.

The US does not buy mercy products from China. Americans want what China produces. So, if those products are greatly expensive – or even disappear from the market – the Americans will suffer.

The significance of the agonizing decision regarding the phones is that Trump has finally admitted, even tacitly, something that he always denied: the customs duties are paid by the importer, not by the exporter.

Over 50% of the phones sold in the US are iPhone, and over 80% of them are produced in China. Americans will complain Gălăgios if their price will increase more than twice. The “release day” should not mean the day of release of phones.

Phones and computer parts are the most obvious candidates for an exemption. However, there are no isolated examples. Trump will have to hope that this summer will not be too hot, as about 80% of the air conditioners on the globe are produced in China; Also where 75% of US imported fans occur. And the White House will definitely have to want to conclude the commercial war before Christmas, since 75% of the dolls and bicycles imported by America in China are produced.

But cannot all this be produced in America? Of course, theoretically. But it will take something until new factories are built, and the final product will be more expensive.

Trump hates the unfavorable press and does not want to see negative titles. So, rather than enduring shortage and inflation, it is more likely that it will continue to add goods to the list of customs duties.

Conditions under which China allows itself to play on expectation. But if Beijing decides that it is worth a counterattack, then very effective weapons can be used. China produces almost 50% of the antibiotic ingredients that Americans are addicted to. F35, the basic piece of American air forces, requires pieces containing rare lands provided by China. China is also the second largest external holder of US treasury bonds – which can count when the market is under pressure.

Even if the Trump administration will be able to identify a category of products to which no American will miss it, it is hard to believe that this is how China could cause epic damage.

The US market represents only about 14% of China's exports. Joerg Wuttke, former head of the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, explains that American taxes are “uncomfortable, but will not be a threat to the economy […] It is an economy of $ 14-15 trillion, and exports to the US are $ 550 billion. ”

The White House is repeating with regret that President XI Jinping should have already put his hand on the phone. But as Trump is now in full withdrawal, Xi has no reason to start negotiations – and even less mercy.

In addition, the authoritarian system strictly controlled by the Communist Party is probably much better prepared to absorb the shock of a period of political and economic difficulties than they are the US, where economic instability is transformed into political pressure.

XI is perfectly able to make a serious mistake and without being forced by others. The management of the Covid-19 pandemic by China has proven it. But the Chinese are preparing for a long-term commercial confrontation-and have analyzed their options in depth. The White House, on the contrary, adjusts its policy on the go.

Trump gave herself a staining hand. Sooner or later will have to give up. Manual, the art of negotiation!

(Material published with the support of Rador Radio Romania)