“Greetings from China – I will show you all American products in my home,” says Chinese influencer, holding empty hands with the camera with a smile. Such a message is now distributed by the Chinese on tiktoku and other social platforms.
China can be confident. Last week, Trump was forced, for example, to remove Chinese mobile phones and electronics from China from the group of goods covered by duties – because otherwise smartphone prices in the US would soar up. All signs in heaven and earth say that Donald Trump will get a split in the fight against China.
If the Chinese buy fewer products from the US, American farmers will suffer first – especially in “red” [republikańskich] states that voted for Trump. China has almost no factories in the USA.
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If Americans buy fewer products from China, American companies – such as Apple (a company with the highest stock market valuation in the world) will also suffer.
This will happen because American companies run dozens of factories in China. Apple cannot simply move the complex iPhone production process, which includes a qualified working force and various suppliers to another country. This is another reason why Trump has withdrawn his duties for now.
Reason: China can do without soy from the USA, but Americans cannot do without inexpensive smartphones
The most important category of American exports to China are oily seeds and cereals. These include, for example, soybeans that American farmers sell to China. China, however, can do without these products – and stock up on soy, for example in South America.
As for Chinese export, electronics are the most important segment that Trump temporarily released from the highest duties over the weekend. However, the United States is also strongly dependent on China in the field of important drugs and metals of rare lands. Quick replacement of these goods is not possible for Washington.
Reason three: When the US isolates, China positions themselves as a reliable partner
Trump's aggressive tariff policy is aimed not only in China, but also in allies in Europe, Canada and Mexico. Although many tariffs have been suspended for 90 days, 25 % duties on steel and aluminum still apply. However, without international cooperation against Beijing, the influence of American duties on China will remain limited.
China is currently strengthening their EU partnerships, ASEAN countries in Southeast Asia and partners as part of the “New Silk Road” [chińska globalna inicjatywa handlowa].
The fourth reason: China is a “banker of America” - and they have a dangerous tool
The United States is guilty of China a lot of money because China has large amounts of American government bonds. In December 2024, China had American debt papers worth $ 759 billion. (over PLN 2 trill PLN 865 billion). China's share corresponds to only 2.1 percent. total US debt. However, if China decided to sell debt papers, it would plunge the United States in chaos.
KEN ISHII / POOL / GETTY IMAGES
Chinese leader XI Jinping (illustrative photos)
The price of American government bonds would decrease, and interest rates would increase. This would be a problem for the US government, companies and private individuals – because mortgage, car and corporate loans would also become more expensive. This could slow down the American economy. Bloomberg recently informed about speculations that China could already sell government bonds. After the confusion on the bond market, Trump postponed most of his duties last week.
Plaintic fifth: Trump's party must soon win the election, XI Jinping – no
Trump's tariffs raise prices for American consumers, driving inflation and undermining support for his policy. The Republican Party must face the intra -Bench elections in November 2026, in which the small majority in parliament may lose. If Trump leads the Americans to a recession, his party will probably be punished.
XI Jinping is less dependent on the opinions of its citizens. His communist party can present economic difficulties as a sacrifice for national interests. Criticism is suppressed. State media present a trade war as a fight with Western arrogance. XI may also indicate an external scapegoat.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
