The threat of Donald Trump at Tehran is clear: either Iran will give up a nuclear program or bombs will fall. The USA and the Middle Eastern Power met at the weekend to negotiate a nuclear program behind closed doors. All this at a time when the war ships occupy their positions. This is the most delicate diplomatic tug of the rope for years – and maybe The last chance to avoid an open conflict. The rate is high, and the threat of war between the two powerful powers is fast approaching. It would be a scenario with catastrophic consequences.
In short, it's about war or peace. The US and Iran negotiate no less than the future of the Iranian nuclear program – and therefore the issue of whether the Middle East will sink into a serious armed conflict in the coming months. Representatives of both countries met in Oman on the first direct conversations in the years – a diplomatic ray of hope in a grim scenario.
The United States Government under the leadership of President Donald Trump insists on “better” agreement than that of 2015.from which the US withdrew in 2018. The request: complete resignation from any form of enriching uranium, comprehensive inspections and additional restrictions on the rocket program. On the other hand, Tehran is willing to accept only limiting his nuclear program – but not its complete disassembly. In return, he demands that the sanctions notice noticeably. Both sides talk about readiness to compromise – but expectations cannot be more contradictory.
Why right now?
President Trump erected Tehran Ultimatum: If the agreement is not reached within a few weeks, The military impact is “inevitable” – If necessary with Israel. At the same time, Iran has made great progress in enriching uranium and, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (Maea), is on the verge of the possibility of producing material with the quality of the bomb. Now it's time for both sides to take action – or face escalation.
Is there a real chance of a diplomatic solution?
Yes – but she is small. “Achieving a far -reaching agreement on all disputed issues will not be possible so quickly,” says Berne Islamist Reinhard Schulze. – Therefore, it will probably also be a matter of finding a solution if it is not found.
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Return to the old nuclear agreement is difficult to imagine. The technical progress of Iran means that a completely new agreement is necessary: with more stringent conditions, greater transparency and clear verification mechanisms. But whether Iran is ready for it – and whether Trump would be ready to compromise – is highly doubtful. “The Iranian side would probably even be ready for direct negotiations with the USA in Oman, if there was a perspective of the abolition of sanctions,” emphasizes Schulze.
What would be the worst scenario?
Coordinated air attack of the USA and Israel on Iranian nuclear installations -With the use of B-2 Stealth bombers, drones and maneuvering shells. But this would be just the beginning: Iran could answer with rockets to Israel, attack American bases in the Persian Gulf, block the Strait of Ormuz and activate regional proxies such as Hezbollah or Huti Militia. The result: a fire from Beirut to Basra, with unpredictable geopolitical and humanitarian consequences.
How likely is the war?
More than in recent years. Although both sides emphasize their readiness to talk, mutual distrust is deep. Iran is afraid that the US only play on time and will hit and so anyway. Washington, in turn, believes that Tehran has long decided to become a nuclear power. One misunderstanding, one provocation – and a barrel of gunpowder may explode.
The situation is therefore tense – but not hopeless – says Schulze. In recent months, Tehran demonstrately distanced himself from his regional proxy organizations. Iran showed that he did not want to be dependent on the adventures of Huti and Hezbollah. Iran wanted-also for religious and ideological reasons-to preserve the strength of definition. He has been doing it so far – adds the expert.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
