Good news on International Chocolate Day. The increases are behind us

Chocolate price increases resulting from a rapid increase in cocoa ratings in global markets are already behind us, but climate change can reduce cocoa supply in the future – Jakub Jakubczak from BNP Paribas pointed out in an interview with PAP. On Saturday is International Chocolate Day.

Chocolate production in Poland is gradually growing, and the value of its annual production was achieved according to Eurostat in 2022 $ 2.4 billion. According to GUS data, domestic chocolate production in 2023 was 364,714 tons, which means increase compared to 2019 by 31.2 percent. Poland in the ranking of European chocolate producers ranks 4th in Germany, Belgium and Italy. A statistical Pole eats 5.9 kg of chocolate a year. According to Eurostat in 2023, Poland was the third country of the Union in the export of chocolate outside the community, responsible for 13 percent. Shipping volume – 115,000 tone. Germany (26 % – 221,000 tons) came first, and on the second Netherlands (14 percent – 123,000 tons). Poland overtook Belgium and Italy.

In recent months, the main problem that chocolate producers struggled was a rapid increase in cocoa prices in global markets. At the turn of 2024 and 2025, the prices of cocoa grain reached a record level of 12 thousand. dollars per ton. This was reflected in chocolate prices, which have been growing in recent months. However, as noted by an expert of agricultural markets Jakub Jakubczak from the BNP Paribas bank, increases in stores were much lower than the increase in cocoa prices on global markets.

“Chocolate producers refused to raise the prices of their products in fear of a significant decrease in sales. If the increases in retail prices were to correspond to the changes in cocoa prices, a plaque that cost PLN 5 would have to increase up to PLN 10. Then a large part of consumers would stop buying it” – noted Jakubczak.

The expert pointed out that producers tried to adapt to higher raw material prices in other ways. “They reduced product weight, as well as cocoa content – e.g. in milk chocolate. Only as a last resort, when they had to conclude contracts for the purchase of cocoa at a price of 9-10 thousand per ton, they raised the price of the final product” – he pointed out.

According to the economist, consumers should not be afraid of a significant increase in the prices of chocolate products in the near future. “The largest increases resulting from the last increases in raw material prices have already been realized. Currently, cocoa prices oscillate around 8-9 thousand for a ton and at the moment there is no threat to increase in the near future” – pointed out Jakubczak.

The main reason for the stroke of cocoa prices in 2024 were – as the expert pointed out – difficult weather conditions in West Africa. “The cocoa is a sensitive plant and its cultivation requires adequate conditions. Too low or too high rainfall affects the restriction of crops. Meanwhile, the changing climate causes primarily uneven decay of rainfall. Susha periods, followed by downpour, and this affects lower yields,” BNP Paribas pointed out.

In 2025, however, higher collections are envisaged than in 2024, which is to allow for rebuilding inventory. “We do not know yet whether they will be larger by 5 or 15 percent, because the situation is changing dynamically. Every week new information from Western Africa receives. However, the last ones are less optimistic, so the collections that will start in the second half of April and will last until the turn of August and September may be worse than initially promised. We expect that this year, we expect that this year will be slightly lower than in 2024, though Rather, there is no hope that we will return to price levels before 2024. ” – forecasts Jakubczak.

The economist pointed out that cocoa price fluctuations in global markets are influenced not only by climatic factors. “Cocoa is, among others, the subject of speculation conducted by various entities, primarily institutional investors with a large reserve of cash, who can play with prices” – he added.

In the ivory coast and Ghana – countries where the most cocoa is produced in the world, the cost of this raw material is also influenced by the interest rate on loans on international markets, from which government agencies mediating between growers and recipients finance the purchase of grain.

PAP's interlocutor also pointed to political problems. “African plantations are occupied by various bandit groups that illegally bring out gold. In this procedure, various chemicals are used, which degrade the soil and cause that the area is not suitable for agricultural purposes for up to 10-15 years” – explained Jakub Jakubczak. (PAP)

GKC/ Mick/ LM/