Cutches imposed on the EU by the Trump administration can significantly affect the condition of the Polish economy, despite the fact that direct exports from Poland to the USA have a relatively small size, and Poland itself records a commercial deficit in exchange with this country. However, the United States is the second recipient of the Polish added value after Germany – they indicate the calculations of the Polish Economic Institute. Experts warn that the trade war will hit all countries including the United States and in all sectors.
– The United States is the second partner of Poland when it comes to export of added values, so they are our important partner and actually duties imposed by the United States on the European Union will have an impact on the Polish economy. Those on steel and aluminum, as well as in the automotive sector, can total a decline in Polish GDP by 0.12-0.15 percent. GDP – says Newseria Marek Wąsiński Information Agency, head of the World Economy Team at the Polish Economic Institute. – The most negative possible scenario, i.e. customs only to the European Union of 25 %, could lead to a decline in Polish GDP by about 0.4 percent. This influence will primarily significantly significantly significantly significantly export to the United States, but also other countries in the world. The Polish added value also goes to the USA by Mexico or Canada.
The final demand of the USA was answered in 2023 for 2.6 percent. Polish GDP and approx. 3 percent employment. Most (57 percent) of these connections result from intermediate exports by other countries, including Germany, Mexico and Canada. In direct exports from Poland, the United States is only our eighth partner. The value of this export to the USA in 2024 increased to $ 12.6 billion. (by 6.3 percent y/y) and it accounted for 3.3 percent. total export of goods from Poland. The machine sector goods as well as turbojet and turboprop engines are particularly important in trade. The export of services was a part of trade comparable to the export of goods – in 2023 Poland sold the US services worth $ 10.4 billion.
– We analyzed three scenarios, the one we were dealing with until April 3, i.e. duties on steel and aluminum and duties on China in the amount of 20 percent. The second scenario we analyzed is the extension of these duties to the automotive sector of 25 %, as well as a situation in which the European Union and other countries in the world responded to American duties, in the automotive sector also in the amount of 25 percent. – explains Marek Wąsiński. – The third scenario, if the United States only imposed duties on the European Union of 25 percent. In this scenario, the largest potential losses of the Polish economy would be 0.4 percent. GDP.
The script of the sharp trade war between the USA and the EU turned out to be the most severe, in which the duties on the part of Trump's administration would be retaliation. This would result in a decrease in Poland by 0.43 percent. This is the result of disruption of supply chains as a result of restrictions in international trade, which will translate into higher production costs and lower availability of sales markets and deepening uncertainty in markets. Dutch will also reduce the investment and export of Polish companies participating in global supply chains. In other scenarios, Polish GDP declines are more moderate (from -0.11 percent to -0.15 percent), but each of them indicates a significant negative impact of the introduced duties on the Polish economy.
– Most of the perspective of those duties we are currently dealing with, the mining sector may be threatened, but the automotive sector will also feel this impact. Although due to more flexible forms of delivery when it comes to its export, he will suffer to a lesser extent – provides the head of the World Economy Team at the Polish Economic Institute. – The scale of cooperation between the European Union and the United States is so large that the entire Union will bear the losses. In fact, the United States also negatively felt duties themselves, because they deteriorate the conditions of doing business, and also deteriorate the conditions for consumers, so you should expect price increases in the United States.
Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the USA on January 20 and on February 4 he imposed an additional 10 %. The duty of the import of goods from China (on February 10 Chinese retaliation came into force), and a month later he added another 10 % tariffs. At that time, 25 % began to apply. Customs duties on goods from Canada and Mexico, but two days later, the American administration excluded goods that meet the requirements of DOPERCA, i.e. free trade agreements between the USA, Canada and Mexico. In turn, on March 12, 25 % entered into force. Dutch and aluminum, and two weeks later, duties were announced to cars imported from around the world (and probably parts of them).
On April 2, Donald Trump presented a list of so -called reciprocal duties or “retaliation duties” (reciprocal tariffs) so that they correspond to the customs rates in the import of partners. The basic customs rate was 10 percent, but some countries, e.g. Asian, were covered over the caps at a higher rate. In the case of the European Union, it amounted to 20 percent, in the case of China – 34 percent.
– Theoretically, some products on the international market may be cheaper, due to the fact that they cannot hit the American market and will look for other markets. However, duties are also largely affected by the Chinese economy, from this perspective its overproduction may also be risky for the European economy. Therefore, it should be considered to what extent the European Union will have to protect its market against the potential flood of cheaper products on the international market, for example, when it comes to steel or aluminum – indicates Marek Wąsiński. – From an internal perspective in the European Union, in the case of parts of products, especially less processed, which would go to the United States, we can expect a decrease in their prices, because there will be an attempt to find demand for these products more in other markets, including On the European Union's internal market, but from the perspective of the aggregate, the customs war between allies will not be beneficial to anyone.
China has already announced an additional 34 % Dutch for imports from the USA, which will enter into force on April 10. On Friday, stock markets both in the USA and Europe or Asia noted clear declines. Now investors are waiting for the EU response.
