2025-04-05 06:00
publication
2025-04-05 06:00
According to European Commission forecasts, the number of people of working age will fall in Poland over the next 25 years by 20 percent. towards 2022 – the Polish Economic Institute (PI) informed on Thursday. The latest data, however, allow you to believe that the decline will be even greater – he added.
According to the European Commission, the number of people of working age (from 20 to 64 years) will fall in Poland by 2050 by 20 percent. Compared to 2022, which means twice as much as an average in the EU. In the assessment, however, these forecasts may be too optimistic due to the faster than anticipated in the forecasts, the fertility rate.
“In 2023 and 2024, 300,000 fewer children were born in Poland than it was adopted in the UN forecasts in 2022. In the future, the population of people of working age may be even smaller than the forecasts of the European Commission,” noted Tomasz Mądry, quoted in the economic weekly Pie.
Pie said that from 2026 the population of the European Union would start shrinking, which will have a significant impact on the labor market and economic development. By 2050, the number of people aged will decrease in 22 out of 27 EU countries, including Poland.
As the institute's economists pointed out, in 2022 Poland had one of the lowest demographic load coefficients throughout Europe. “The demographic load coefficient, i.e. the number of people aged 65+ per 100 people of working age (20-64 years), was 31.9 and it was the 7th. The lowest result in the entire EU. An aging society, the prolonged average life expectancy and one of the lowest fertility rates in the EU will make Poland one of the most demographically burdened EU countries,” he pointed out.
The forecasts of the European Commission show that in 2045 the demographic load factor in Poland will be 49.7, which will reach our country in the middle of the EU rate. In 2070, however, this factor will increase to 63.7, which will be 7. The highest result in the EU. Pie experts indicated that in the region only Lithuania, which will be the most demographically burdened country in 2070 and Bulgaria will achieve demographic load coefficients exceeding 60.
Pie said that in the future Eastern Europe would be the fastest depopulating region. “In most Eastern European countries – including Poland – the forecast balance of migration until 2050 is zero or even negative. Recommendations of Think Tank Bruegel to reduce the demographic load of Eastern European countries include the detention and attraction of qualified employees, including thanks to the employment of immigrants in local works or incentives to return, e.g. the German act on qualified immigration, “said Pie.
Another postulate – as he pointed out – is to increase women's professional activity by developing access to childcare and supporting the balance between work and private life, e.g. by enabling part -time work. It should be complemented by better inclusion of older people in the labor market and investments in modern care solutions and support for informal carers.
The Polish Economic Institute is a public Think Tank economic; He prepares reports, analyzes and recommendations regarding key areas of the economy and social life in Poland. (PAP)
GKC/ PAD
