Giorgia Meloni in trap. “A friend of the USA and Europe can become the enemy of both”
As a leader of the third largest EU economy, a telmony, a declared transatlantist, she clearly does not share the increasingly decisive rhetoric of France and Germany, that it is time for Europe to build its own armed forces and replace America as the main guarantor of Ukraine's security.
Melonies' caution in the matter of remilitarization of Europe partly reflects her sincere belief that Rome should not make a zero-one choice, Talking on the EU side against US President Donald Trump.
An internal political calculation is also at stake. Representing the extreme right, Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini tries to rebuild his position, Playing voters' skepticism in terms of sending peace forces to Ukraine (surveys show that only six percent of Italians think that this is a good idea), as well as common fears that increasing military expenditure will have a bad influence on the already strained finances of Italy.
Change of rhetoric
The challenge for the Italian prime minister is that its coalition must balance the interests of the extreme right -wing party of the Salvini league, admirer Trump and Russian president Vladimir Putin, with the interests of another important partner, the center -right party of Forza Italia Antonio Tajani, which is much more pro -European, and even publicly supported the creation of the European army.
While the Meloni government is extremely stable for Italian standards, it must alleviate the disputes between Salvini and the EU -oriented Tajani. They both clash, among others on the idea of creating a European army. Salvini even mocked that such forces should never be commanded by the “madman” of the French President Emmanuel Macron.
These political tensions are visible in the changing rhetoric of bowls in recent weeks. She withdrew from her earlier statements that Ukraine would win and expressed serious doubts about the plans of the EU remedy. She also poured a bucket of cold water into those European countries that claim that they would cope alone without American power.
“I don't think I would use the word” victory “in relation to the war in Ukraine,” said Melons in the Italian parliament last month, denying her previous position.
Italian Deputy Prime Minister and League leader Matteo Salvini during the first peak of the far -right EU parties in Madrid, Spain, February 8, 2025.
However, he is still pushing his controversial idea, according to which NATO safety guarantees would be expanded to Ukraine without joining the alliance.
Her allies favored the EU in the ruling coalition emphasized in the comments for Politico that Melons remained in her heart engaged in a European, and her recent comments were mainly to calm Salvini. The most important question, however, is whether it still underestimated the degree to which Trump really turns away from Europe.
– The way Trump has behaved over the past two months makes it difficult to be a mediator [między USA a Europą] – noted Giovanni Orsina, a professor of contemporary history at the Luiss University in Rome. – And now there is a risk that from a friend of both sides [Meloni] It will become their enemy He added.
Italy does not want to be at the grace of France and Germany
Although Melons is still devoted to Europe, its change in rhetoric reflects the true skeptical of Rome as to the pace and scale of the EU arms plans, the Italian officials say anonymously.
The main issue is the alliance removal plan proposed by the European Commission, which would include a loan package worth EUR 150 billion (626 billion 865 million) for member countries and greater fiscal flexibility of up to EUR 650 billion (2 trill 716 billion) for countries that do not have sufficient budget surplus.
According to two people familiar with the position of the government, Rome realizes that it is weaker and smaller than France and Germany, and also has a more realistic view of the European defense sector and its limited chances in the fight against Russia without the USA.
As Politico reported last month, Italy also pressed the private sector involvement in the arms plan. They are afraid that otherwise he will lead to a rapid increase in external financing costs at a time when the EU orders them to reduce excessive debt.
As in the case of Great Britain, the close relations of Italy from the US reduced their dependence on European neighbors. Now Rome is afraid that he will stay at the “grace” of France and Germany in the event of the breakdown of the transatlantic alliance.
– While France has always had cool relations with the United States, no Italian government has ever questioned the US relations in the field of defense – said Politico Italian general Leonardo Tricarico, who was a military advisor to several premieres.
He added that after the defeat of Italy in World War II, the country forever understood that it would never be a global superpower. – We can play a role everywhere in the world, but we can do it only when we are together with the USA. Of course, we have to do it also in the EU, but not only there – he said. In his opinion, transatlantic breakdown would make it difficult for both Europe and the United States to fight China.
Foreign Minister of Italy Antonio Tajani and chairwoman of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels, Belgium, March 17, 2025.
Allies are apparently already aware of the dissatisfaction of Italy. In an interview with the Italian daily “Corriere della Sera”, the chairwoman of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen tried to assure Rome that his arms company, Leonardo, would “significantly benefit” to increase defense expenses and play a significant role in rearming Europe. What's more, the latest version of the EU arms plans – which contains provisions regarding financing by the private sector – It has already calm the fears of Rome to some extent.
Faith in the transatlantic alliance
However, none of this is able to fully calm the bowler. According to Stefan Stefani, a former high -ranking Italian diplomat and NATO ambassador, the actions of the Italian Prime Minister also reflect faith, perhaps the wrong, that the transatlantic alliance can still be saved and that his fall has been exaggerated.
Centhrotatvatic parliamentarian and former minister of European affairs Enzo Amendola, who told Politico, agreed to this, agreed with this, that the efforts of Melons in favor of reconciliation They will leave Italy on “Nobody's Land between the EU and the USA”.
Nevertheless, this is a view shared by Italians from the entire political spectrum. “I doubt that there would be a complete split between the United States and the European Union,” said Danilo Della Valle, a MEP from the left-compulency of five stars. He added that the remilitarization of Europe is finally what Trump asks.
Coalition clashes
However, internal issues are more important to melons than geopolitical fears.
In recent years, Salvini's splendor has been overshadowed by melons, and the league Congress planned next month in Florence may reveal deep divisions in the ranks of the party.
Recently, Salvini has brought criticism for himself for contacting the US administration independently – including for an unauthorized telephone conversation with the despising Europe vice president JD Vance last month – and for repeated calls that Melons would not support the EU defense plans.
According to the League senator Claudio Borghi, Salvini is unlikely to break the coalition in the near future. “After a catastrophic exit from the coalition government with the Movement of Five Stars in 2019, he learned the risk of political performances with them,” said Politico. He added that the change of telons regarding Ukraine largely calmed down the members of the league.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her deputy, leader of the party league Matteo Salvini, Rome, June 26 this year.
Although Melons tries to regain the ground on the right, her recent actions also suggest that she can look for a pro -European alternative to Salvini, says Francesco Galietti, a former state official and founder of the Policy Sonar consulting company.
At the weekend, Melons caused some surprise, praising her central political rival Carlo Calenda, who leads the little group Azione, widely hated by the extreme right. Calenda is also a famous supporter of the EU rearming. “This is her protection against Salvini,” Galietti said.
At Azione's conference, however, she denied that she was considering a formal alliance with Calenda, although apparent support for the friendly EU leader reminds her of her own support for the alliance.
However, as the relationship with Trump becomes more and more tense, the boundaries of this support are exposed to a hard test.
“If there is a point where she will have to choose between support and non -supporting Ukraine, it will not abandon her, she is too devoted to Ukraine,” said Stefanini. – But she will try to avoid making a choice as long as she can He added.
