When US President Donald Trump said, last day, that Vladimir Putin has “ten to twelve days” to accept an armistice in Ukraine, many rushed to greet a change of tuna. After months when the American rhetoric seemed oscillating, and the pressures on the Kremlin mitigated, the new firmness of the White House was viewed, in the Western capitals, as an encouraging sign. But, as the former member of the American Congress Jane Harman warns in an analysis published in The Hill, the announcement has all the features of a reverse-effect maneuver: an unexpected gift for Moscow-and, indirectly, for Beijing.
Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping/Photo: EPA/EFE
Russia has learned to navigate between Western hesitations and firm but postponed promises. While the US hesitates to apply sanctions already drafted, and Europe is blocked in electoral calculations, Russian forces are advancing in Ukraine with an intensity that is not founded in the last 12 months. In a single day, last month, Russia launched 728 drones, rockets and false targets in a coordinated attack-a demonstration of force that put to the test the Ukrainian air defense.
Shahed drones, produced with the help of Chinese components directly on the Russian territory, have become a current use weapon. And the breathing space offered by Washington seems to have given the Russians exactly what they needed: time, impunity and initiative.
The Congress postponed the sanctions, waiting for Trump's “final decision”
In the American Congress lies, not adopted, a Bipartisan sanction project, supported by 85 senators – that is, enough to pass over a possible presidential veto. Initiated by Republican Lindsey Graham and Democrat Richard Blumenthal, the project aims to apply secondary sanctions against states that continue to buy oil and Russian gases – including China, India and Brazil.
However, at the beginning of July, the Senate leaders suspended the vote, waiting for a possible “gesture of goodwill” from Moscow. Specifically, waiting for the expiration of the 50 days promised by Putin to accept the conditions of an agreement. It was a clear signal that the American strategy is temporarily blocked in its own political stopwatch.
This expectation – notes Harman – is a mistake. Not just because it offers the Kremlin maneuver space, but also because it feeds a dangerous perception: that the US hesitates to use its entire palette of economic instruments, preferring to play in the short term.
Beijing, the silent partner who observes and learns
In all this painting, China does not pass passively. On the contrary: Chinese companies deliver to Russia sensitive technologies, military equipment and drone components. Beijing officials have received delegations from the occupied territories of Ukraine and, according to European diplomats, made it clear to Brussels that they do not want to defeat Russia-not to allow Washington to turn all their attention to Asia.
Recently, two Chinese citizens were arrested in Kiev on the charge that they were trying to get classified information about the Neptune Rocket Program. And five Chinese companies have entered the list of Ukrainian sanctions. A signal that Ukraine clearly understands that the war it leads is no longer a border with Russia, but a link in a much larger geopolitical chain.
Time flows but not in favor of those who wait
The idea of a deadline can be useful as a political instrument-it creates an emergency, it forces positioning. But, without concrete actions, he becomes a pretext for inaction. Trump has also offered such “last terms”-promises of decisions “in two weeks” that have been postponed, until they lost their strength.
In reality, the timer does not work against Putin – but those who hesitate. If the US does not act, if the Congress postpone again and if the Western allies are waiting, the Russians will continue to hit, and Beijing will notice how the free world is confused in their own conditionalities.
For time to count, every day must be used. Otherwise, the chronometers become only props in a geopolitical theater in which the aggressors write the script alone.
