2025-06-18 10:23
publication
2025-06-18 10:23
Donald Trump's entries on the exchange of fire in the Middle East scared the markets a bit, which caused the dollar to gain and oil prices jumped again. The night, however, did not bring a solstice and Wednesday's morning brings correction. The zloty stays stable to the euro, but a lot will depend on the reaction of the markets to the Fed's decision and communication on interest rates and the direction in which Israel's conflict with Iran will develop. Meanwhile, the dollar turns out to be the most underdeveloped in the portfolios managing funds.
US President Donald Trump on Tuesday wrote in the plural that “they have total control over the Iranian aircraft.” “Unconditional surrender!” – the president wrote in the next post. Which caused speculation about the active joining of the US to the conflict, the more that German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that the United States was to consider taking part in attacks on Iran. This conquered the risk aversion in markets. Oil gained over 4 percent The dollar strengthened, but only golden ratings were slightly conquered.
The EUR/PLN exchange rate remained stable and even resistant to events from recent hours. On Wednesday morning just before 10.00 for the euro was paid PLN 4.2738, which is almost the same as the day before at this time. On Tuesday, despite the weaker sentiments for risky assets (declines on stock markets), EUR/PLN failed to break through the level of PLN 4.28.
“The beginning of trade in Europe does not bring much movement on EUR/PLN. Apart from extreme scenarios, related to the situation in the Middle East, the next day we expect stabilization on the national currency and euro valuation in the range 4.26-4.28 PLN” – wrote in the BGK report.
“On Wednesday, the development of the situation in the Middle East, and from the sphere of the macro meeting of the FOMC, they will be the main factors affecting market moods. The further course of the conflict between Israel and Iran is difficult to forecast, it does not indicate much that it would end soon, looking at the upward trend of oil oil ratings” – wrote in the PKO BP report.
“This could lead to an increase in the dollar function as a safe marina and its appreciation. In the case of EUR/PLN, we assume a continuation of the side trend, with the persistent risk of attack on its upper restrictions (4.29), if the global moods were suddenly worsened” – added.
The dollar appreciation was actually correlated with Tuesday's deterioration of moods in the markets. The dollar to the zloty jumped on Tuesday afternoon to over PLN 3.72 and was the most expensive in nearly a week. In turn, the eurodolar fell for the first time from Friday below 1.15, but on Wednesday morning the EUR/USD exchange rate was again above this level and was 1.1513. They are still levels of nearly 3-year-old maxims from last Thursday (1,1627) on this couple, testifying to the weakness of the American currency.
Meanwhile, according to a survey conducted by Bank of America, the managing global investment funds are currently the most underweight in the American dollar. The survey conducted in June, in which 206 respondents managing the total assets of $ 640 billion took part, showed that the net position of investors on the dollar fell to the lowest level since 2004.
“Compared to historical data, investors are overweight in euros, bonds and public utilities, and underweight in the American dollar, energy and American actions,” notes Bank of America.
Frank cost PLN 4,5443 and cheaper about 2 grosze in Tuesday's maximum. The Helwecka currency remains almost record-strong relative to the American dollar nearly 14-year-old maximas, but its quotations in relation to the euro persist at clearly weaker levels than three months ago. PLN 4.9962 was paid for the British pound on Wednesday morning. In the morning they showed inflation for May, which amounted to 3.4 percent. yard, relative to the forecast at 3.3 percent and the previous reading of 3.5 percent
Mku
