Wasielewski, who participated in CIA operations in Afghanistan, in this way summed up the first days of Israeli bombing Iran and Iranian answer.
– Israel before, last year, showed that it has the ability to freely set goals inside Iran, destroying objects related to the rocket program. But this time the scale of this is completely different: there were reports that 200 aircraft were used in the first waves, of which none was knocked down. They were able to eliminate all the most important military commanders, knowing their exact location, and hurt heavily defended objects. In addition, we hear that the Israelis conducted sabotage campaigns inside Iran, very similar to those led by Ukrainians in Russia-says the expert, currently the Think-Tanka Foreign Policy Research Initiative analyst. “All this indicates a very successful military operation,” he said.
Wasielewski stated nevertheless that The total effect of attacks on the purposes of the Iran atomic program may remain unknown for a long timeand the complete destruction of these objects is unlikely. He assessed, however, that Israel could at least withdraw the progress made by Tehran, delaying the possible possibilities of obtaining nuclear weapons by Iran potentially for years. However, he said, perhaps more important are the political effects of the Israeli blow, which exposed the powerlessness and weakness of the Iranian regime.
The pro -Vyran mesh thinned
– Colloquially speaking: we are dealing with a situation in which the country, which bases most of its propaganda on anti -Semitism and anti -anti -nausealism, receives a powerful spanking from a group of Jews, without inflicting serious losses – assessed the interlocutor of PAP. – Of course It is difficult to expect the Iranians to overthrow the regime because they call them to this Israel – Society usually in such situations is solidarized with the authorities when its country is attacked. But in the long run, his position in the eyes of society and other actors in the Middle East will be much weaker. In the Middle East it is difficult to survive when you show a weakness – he added.
He noted that this weakness can be seen in the alliance system that Iran has built for years in the region. As far as Tehran could count on the help of militias in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Iraq, Yemen, or the support of the Syrian regime, Today, the pro -Vyran mesh is in much worse conditiondismantled by earlier Israeli strikes against Hezbollah or the defeat of the Assad regime in Syria.
Wasielewski pointed out that although Iran answered Israel with ballistic missiles, Most of them have been intercepted and Tehran's rocket resources are probably limitedso that Iran is unable to maintain a fire exchange for a long time. He also stated that the operation and helplessness of Iranian air defense systems-including Russian S-300 and S-400-to Another anti -advertising of Russian weapons. He added that political effects can be wider for Russia. He reminded that in January Russia signed with Iran with a 20-year security agreement, which turned out to be not worth much.
– You can ask: how much did Iran give. This is a similar situation we saw in the war of Armenia with Azerbaijan, where the alliance with Russia did not give much Armenia. So seeing this, North Korea could think about how much Russian guarantees give – says Wasielewski. He added that another effect of an Israeli attack is to stop the supply of Iranian rockets and drones to Russia.
The expert assessed that despite the previous opposition shown by Donald Trump towards Israeli plans, the USA strategically gained attack. “I think that basically someone should thank someone, because it has done our strategic situation much easier,” he said.
