As we wrote in this article, on May 7, the Monetary Policy Council for the first time in over a year and a half decided to reduce interest rates. For many market participants, it was a long -awaited decision that could affect the revival in the housing sector.
– We have already seen how strongly the housing market can react to cuts of interest rates – reminds Katarzyna Kuniewicz, director of the Otodom market research. – Just go back to the second half of 2020 and the first months of 2021. After three consecutive discounts, the NBP interest rates fell to a record low level of 0.1 percent. As a result, the sale of apartments on the seven largest markets in Poland began to grow from month to month, and in the peak moment of this growth rate reached up to 40 percent. monthly – he adds.
The monitoring of the development market in mid -May pointed to the above -average level of reservations of apartmentssimilar to the results from the very good 2023. However, experts approached these signals with caution.
– We know that buyers can surprise you by changing the sentence not only of traders, but also market analysts. Sometimes they withdraw from the booking, just before signing the development contract. This is why We treated a high level of booking from the first half of May as an important signal, not an unambiguous announcement – points out Kuniewicz.
Record sales results
The second half of May confirmed optimistic forecasts. Developers operating on the seven largest housing markets in Poland have sold over 3,700 apartments, which means an increase of 30 percent. compared to April. This is a much better result than in the same period last year, when sales did not exceed 2,700 units.
The value of apartments sold by development companies
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Otodom.pl / otodom.pl
The value of sold apartments also surprised – for the first time from October 2023 exceeded PLN 3 billion. However, experts pay attention to the complexity of the factors that affected such a good result.
– One must not forget that two elements consisted of this record increase in the sales volume to month. Firstly Acceleration of the decision to finalize the purchase by a certain group of buyers, caused by the MPC decision to reduce the feet. Secondly withdrawal more than in previous months – a group of buyers from shoppingwhich we noted as the April sales – explains Kuniewicz.
A record offer on most markets
The revival is also visible on the supply side. In May, developers began selling over 5,200 apartments in new investments. Most projects appeared in Warsaw (1,300 apartments), the Tri -City (1100) and Krakow (1100).
However, as Otodom experts say, as long as the scale of the introductions is not surprising in the case of the first two markets, where the sale time of the offer does not exceed 5 quarters (on the sustainable market it oscillates around 4-5 quarters), that's all In Krakow where this indicator exceeds 7 quarters – it begins to worry. The result of such dynamic in the last several months, the introduction of new investments by companies operating on the Krakow market is the record level of the offer. At the end of May, the total offer of development companies in Krakow reached 10,500 apartments.
The aggregate offer for seven largest markets has reached 62,100 apartments, which means an increase of 37 percent compared to May 2024.
Prices of apartments up, but slower
Along with the growing offer, the average price of apartments offered by developers is increasing more and more slowly. At the end of May, the average apartment had an area of 54 sq m, and its price slightly exceeded 809 thousand. PLN – only by 2 percent more than a year ago.
Average prices of apartments in the offer of developers
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Otodom.pl / otodom.pl
– The average housing prices in newly launched investments in May are clearly higher, both compared to April and until May the previous year. This means that despite the increase in activity, the prospect of a clear price reduction on which many potential buyers count on, still moves away – comments Kuniewicz.
The exception is Wrocław, where as the only market it noted a decrease in average prices, both in monthly and annual comparison. Price reductions have been going on continuously since October 2024.
The secondary market brakes
Unlike the primary market, the secondary sector continues slowdown trend. In May, nearly 47,000 offers for the sale of second -hand apartments were published – by 6 percent. less than in April.
Number of ads on the secondary market
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Otodom.pl / otodom.pl
– A decrease in the number of new ads in May may be the result of the extending time for which offers remain active on portals. Less transactions mean less rotation, which in turn reduces the need to issue new offers. The secondary market reacts more slowly, more carefully today – emphasizes Milena Chełchowska, an expert of the Otodom housing market.
Cooling is also visible on the demand side – the number of answers to the ad has dropped by about 4 percent. compared to April. Prices on the secondary market remain stable, with moderate increases only in Katowice and Warsaw.
