Joern Lauterbach, “Die Welt”: Donald Trump is increasingly talking about Russian aggression to Ukraine. Do you think he is able to negotiate with Vladimir Putin on an equal footing?
Stefan Aust: They both know each other for a long time to be able to assess each other. However, they have different interests. Trump has in mind primarily China, which is ahead of the US as a global economic power. So he must deal with Putin a bit carefully so as not to push Russia completely into the arms of the Chinese.
Russian raw materials, primarily oil and gas, are just as needed by China as all other industrialized countries in the world. And the belief that Putin can be cut off to the Funds for War in Ukraine, imposing sanctions on countries buying Russian oil, seems rather naive. Even powerful American sanctions did not work on Kuba Fidel Castro and his successors.
Trump may, however, be interested in Russia as a raw material partner. The war in Ukraine only bothers him.
It seems that the US president would be satisfied with maintaining the status quo, i.e. leaving territories currently occupied by Russia, including Crimea, in Russian hands, and thus within the Russian state. Trump would probably also agree to the neutrality of the rest of Ukraine, and thus the country's accession to NATO. This does not differ much from the provisions of the Ukrainian-Russian agreement of April 2022, which was parish, but-allegedly after the intervention of the then prime minister of Britain Boris Johnson-was not signed.
The EU is skeptical about it and wants to impose new sanctions on Russia – the 17th package. 16 previous ones did not help much, do you still see sense in it?
The sense is to show that the West is on the side of Ukraine. Perhaps Putin would be more willing to conclude a peace agreement if he was offered to abolish sanctions. Mini Car Kremlin does not feel very well as the younger brother of the powerful Chinese emperor XI Jinping. In addition, the war in Ukraine, which he began, costs Russians huge losses in people and consumes a lot of money.
Continuation of the material under the video
One of the factors, which – according to Putin – led to the outbreak of the conflict, was the pressure of Volodymyr Zelanski to join Ukraine to NATO. Ukraine was invited to the alliance by US President George W. Bush during the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008. Putin in a speech given before the gathered heads of government admitted that Russia has no right of veto regarding NATO membership, but at the same time threatened that the membership of Ukraine in the alliance may “undermine the existence of the state.” So it was clear where the red line was for him.
Olaf Scholz's government could not agree for a long time on deliveries to Ukraine Taurus missiles. His successor Friedrich Merz, unlike what he said during the election campaign, does not want to raise this topic now. Has he changed his approach to the threats lurking at Germany?
The most dangerous in the war in Ukraine, in addition to its horrors, is the risk of its further escalation. Chancellor Scholz should not be accused of wanting to avoid the entanglement of Germany in the war. Taurus missiles have a range reaching from Ukraine to Moscow, you don't need to add anything more. Even if they are used “only” to blow up the bridge in Crimea, this will have its consequences. Merz should know about it.
The United States is not a protective power just because they want to protect us. They also represent their global interests. The interests of our great ally are not always identical to ours, and the United States was not always right, taking global military missions – as the examples of their intervention in Vietnam, Afghanistan or Iraq. The war is not just about being on a morally right side. Do not completely ignore the issue of whether you can win it or not. This was clearly shown by three mentioned wars – the US put a huge effort into them, and after years ended in a quiet withdrawal.
That is why it was necessary and it is for a country like Germany to do enough for its own safety. You can't only be “conditionally ready to defend”, you must be ready. It is better to avoid such worries as “the ability to war”, because the problem is to prevent it. When the war is out of the outbreak, it is extremely difficult to end it, the risk of escalation is very high. We see it very clearly.
The only German party that sympathizes with both Trump and Putin is AfD. There is currently a debate on whether the party's deputies should chair the Bundestag committees. What do you think about it?
Yes, this is a strange coalition. But the fear of AfD should not be so great to make your own opinion dependent on what such forces say. If Alice Weidel says it's raining, it doesn't mean the sun is shining. And until the party is forbidden, it cannot be denied the right to perform all the functions of selected representatives of the Nation in the Bundestag. Because it will lead to obtaining more voters for this party. AFD is a kind of account for the politics of establishment of the party from reality.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
