“The level of fears in Poland is the highest compared to other European economies, which were included in our study! As many as 58 percent of surveyed Polish companies expect the negative effects of the trade war, compared to 47 % expressing respectively, expressing such fears in other European countries from our study. As a result, 51 percent of Polish companies surveyed on the level of their exports compared to 41. Proc
“The awareness of the end of the previous strengths in the form of relatively low production costs, which is important in the era of looking for savings for new, higher duties, is another important reason for caution. The exhibition of Polish companies to trade with the USA may seem to be more important than the awareness of the shortcomings in the negotiating position of Polish companies (compared to companies from highly developed countries) explains the concerns of Polish companies – they are An exaggerated approach to the effects of the customs war, “said member of the board of Allianz Trade in Poland responsible for the risk assessment of Sławomir Bąk, quoted in the communiqué.
Bąk emphasized that the fears of Polish exporters about the weakness of their own negotiating position – From the fact of selling elements, components, unmarked goods, and not high -harvest products under your own, known brand – and therefore easier to replace than the latter.
Polish exporters try to avoid the impact of the trade war on the prices of their products as much as possible (Increasing prices include in its expectations 25 percent of surveyed Polish companies, i.e. with an average of about 7 percent less than entrepreneurs from other surveyed European countries), and 64 percent. of them declare the maintenance of existing prices, emphasized.
“Instead of increasing prices, they intend to look for new, cheaper supply sources without compromises (45 percent of respondents from Poland – with an average of 31 percent for all countries) and new, more perspective markets (30 percent of Polish surveyed companies at an average of a survey of 24 %). The diversification of supply chains and customer databases is a permanent strategy for limiting risk Considering that 54 percent of respondents consider the geopolitical and political risk as well as social unrest as one of the three greatest threats to their supply chains.
It was noted that services play an important role in Polish export to the USA.
“Although direct export to the United States was not significant (3-4 percent of the value of Polish exports), after taking into account the re-export of Polish products through third markets, this percentage increases to 8.2 percent (source-National Bank of Poland). In addition, in the export of Poland to the United States, services play an important role, which is not often included in commercial statistics regarding trade in goods”-we read.
The study showed that globally about 60 percent surveyed companies expect a negative impact of the trade war, and 45 percent expects a decrease in export turnover.
“This impact goes beyond commercial volumes: more than one in four companies is considering temporarily suspending production due to the combination of duties and currency variability, especially in the sectors depending on imported intermediate goods. Polish business is not only not free from these fears, but it turns out that despite the relatively low share of direct trade in the US compared to other countries (it is our 8 export market) It translates into the peace of Polish exporters ” – we read further.
As indicated by the general director of Allianz Trade Aylin Somersan Coqui, “global positive export expectations have dropped from 80 percent to 40 %, and 42 % of companies are currently expecting a decrease in export turnover from -2 percent to -10 %, compared to only 5 percent before April 2.”
“Despite recent bilateral agreements with Great Britain and China, we estimate that global export losses will reach USD 305 billion in 2025. Companies do not stand still. After defeating subsequent shocks from 2020, they once again adapt, they adapt, sag at partners, reconfigure logistics and introduce risk division in the entire chain of value. Today's commercial environment success depends on the ability, “said Aylin Somersan Coqui.
