Saudi Aramco is evaluating the potential sale of its business interests in Poland, following its successful establishment in the country over recent years. The Saudi oil company has benefitted significantly from the merger of Orlen and Lotos, as it acquired stakes in key operations such as a 30% share of the Gdańsk Refinery and wholesale fuel trading, now managed by Aramco Fuels Poland. Reports indicate that the company has engaged investment bank JP Morgan to explore these options.
While speculation exists about a complete exit from the Polish market, sources suggest a more likely scenario involves divesting its fuel wholesale business. Government insiders have noted that there has been no formal communication from Aramco regarding intentions to exit, indicating the company is still assessing its options. “No information has reached Orlen formally, and we have only heard informally that no decisions have been made,” one government source explained. Another insider expressed doubts about Aramco’s exit, suggesting that any exploration of options is likely a strategic move aimed at influencing EU regulations that impact their operations.
The fuel sector is considered strategic, meaning new investors cannot enter without government approval. Key assets, such as the Gdańsk Refinery, require careful handling due to their significance. The relationship with Aramco has become critical for Poland, especially after the country shifted away from Russian oil, with nearly half of its crude oil imports now coming from Saudi Arabia.
The ongoing geopolitical situation, including the war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East, has elevated the need for a stable energy supply. Recent incidents, like damage to Saudi oil pipelines, have highlighted the importance of reliable sourcing, prompting Orlen to increase its global purchases of oil.
In the event of a sale, a crucial factor will be the existing contract with Saudi Aramco for daily deliveries of between 200,000 and 337,000 barrels of oil. Sources indicate that discussions regarding the potential sale of assets and the oil supply contract are not directly linked.
Industry analysts are split on whether the sale is a genuine move or a lobbying tactic aimed at easing new EU regulations, particularly concerning sustainability and due diligence. The European Commission’s delayed implementation of new directives until July 2029 has raised concerns among oil companies, including Aramco, regarding legal liabilities and penalties related to human rights and environmental standards.
Valuations suggest that the assets held by Aramco in Poland, particularly its wholesale fuel business, could fetch between 3 billion and 5 billion PLN. This unit generated over 18 billion PLN in revenue last year, yielding approximately 780 million PLN in net profit. Additionally, analysts estimate that stakes in the Gdańsk Refinery may be valued between 1.5 billion and 4.6 billion PLN. Given the current high oil prices, Aramco could potentially achieve a sale price significantly exceeding its initial investments.
Potential buyers for these assets may include companies like Hungarian MOL, which is already partnered with Aramco in Poland. However, it’s uncertain whether Orlen, which had to divest from certain assets due to EU conditions during its acquisition of Lotos, could engage in acquiring these shares again.
Should the Saudi company decide to proceed with a sale, regulatory approval from state institutions will be essential, given that the Gdańsk Refinery is classified as strategic. The Minister of State Assets has the authority to block sales that may pose a risk to national security, influencing the potential buyer’s selection. In contrast, the wholesale business may face scrutiny from the Office of Competition and Consumer Protection or the European Commission, necessitating compliance with new investment control laws effective from July 2025.
This ongoing situation underscores the complex interplay of market dynamics, regulatory frameworks, and geopolitical considerations impacting Saudi Aramco’s operations and potential asset sales in Poland.
