Recent attacks on the port in Odessa by Russian forces and assaults on the port in Novorossiysk by Ukrainian forces have significantly disrupted grain transport from both nations, according to the Polish Economic Institute (PIE). Together, grain exports from Russia and Ukraine accounted for one-third of the global wheat supply.
Data from PIE indicates that attacks on port infrastructure and vessels in the Black Sea during July and August have damaged terminals and halted the majority of grain exports from both Russia and Ukraine.
According to estimates from Ukrainian authorities, Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports in Odessa and along the Danube resulted in Ukraine exporting only 1.6 million tons of wheat between August 1 and 28, which represents just 20 percent of its capacity and about 40 percent of exports during the same period last year.
Global Wheat Production Supply Chain Disrupted
Economists have noted that Ukraine and Russia are responsible for approximately one-third of the global wheat export market, meaning disruptions in their operations quickly affect global prices. In July, FAO grain prices averaged 113.8 points, marking a 6.9 percent increase from the previous year. In August, due to worsening conditions and fears of continued export disruptions through the Black Sea, futures contracts for wheat (CBOT Wheat) rose about 30 percent year-on-year, reaching the highest levels in over three years.
Amid these challenges, Ukraine is seeking to increase transit through Poland and other regional countries while also advocating for the lifting of the current embargo on importing wheat, corn, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds. However, experts at PIE believe that land routes cannot sustain the export levels achieved via Black Sea ports.
For Ukraine, agricultural exports are vital, accounting for about 60 percent of total exports. A prolonged blockade of Odessa would lead to significant losses, currency fluctuations, lower domestic prices for export goods, and depleted storage capacity. “Maintaining this blockade also poses a risk to achieving the National Bank of Ukraine’s projected GDP growth of 1.8 percent,” PIE reported.
Russia Faces Export Challenges Beyond Grains
Meanwhile, Russia’s export potential has been severely hampered by damage to the Novorossiysk port, which accounted for one-third of its grain exports.
The Kremlin is also challenged with maintaining oil exports from Novorossiysk. To mitigate risks from further Ukrainian strikes on economic targets, the Kremlin has, by decree, shifted the responsibility of drone protection to business owners. Inadequate security measures could provide grounds for state institutions to take control of private critical infrastructure facilities.
Experts from PIE have highlighted that the issues surrounding grain exports exacerbate the difficulties faced by the economies of both Ukraine and Russia as the war enters its fifth year. According to estimates from the Russian central bank, in the first half of 2026, Russia’s GDP grew by 0.6 percent. Drone attacks and the situation in the oil market have led to forecasts of weaker GDP growth for Russia this year than previously anticipated.
