Mark Esper, former U.S. Secretary of Defense under Donald Trump, has warned that the United States cannot win its conflict with Iran through airstrikes alone. He asserts that in order to compel Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. needs to severely weaken the Islamic Republic’s economy.
On Wednesday, the U.S. conducted further attacks on Iran, with Trump announcing plans to escalate airstrikes in the coming weeks to pressure the Iranian regime into negotiations.
Esper, who served during Trump’s first term, told the Financial Times that such military strategies are unlikely to change Iran’s resolve or its control over the Strait. He expressed skepticism about the effectiveness of intensifying bombings, stating, “I am not convinced that if we resumed bombing on the scale we did a few months ago for a longer period, it would bring about significant change.”
Trump’s Shift in Stance
This month, Trump declared an end to a temporary ceasefire with Iran, claiming that Tehran violated a memorandum intended to secure free maritime passage while negotiations were ongoing.
The resurgence of military action could plunge the Middle East back into crisis and trigger a new wave of inflationary pressures in the global economy.
Prior to U.S. and Israeli military actions against Iran, vessels moved freely through this crucial waterway, which transports approximately 20 percent of the world’s oil supply.
Following the attacks, Tehran largely closed the Strait, and maritime traffic has dwindled to a fraction of its pre-conflict levels.
Options for the Strait of Hormuz
During a national security expert meeting in Aspen on Tuesday, Esper advocated for a “comprehensive” economic pressure approach to resolve the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, which has led to rising fuel prices globally.
“How do we apply pressure?” he asked in his conversation with the Financial Times on Wednesday. “One option is a full-scale military offensive. The other is to economically squeeze them.”
