Kyiv Monitoring Belarus Amid War Participation Speculations

Sybiga: We expect Minsk to avoid provocation and involvement
Ukrainian official Sybiga stated that Kyiv is assuming that Minsk will strive to avoid escalating its military involvement. He emphasized that Ukraine will remain vigilant in response to any developments along the border and changes in military activity.
“We do not anticipate their participation in the war. We believe they will not allow themselves to be drawn into this conflict by Russia; they will avoid such provocation. However, Ukraine will mirror any potential actions, and I think the Lukashenko regime understands this,” Sybiga asserted.
He noted that Ukrainian services are monitoring Belarus’s military infrastructure and its interactions with Russia. Additionally, Kyiv rejects proposals from Minsk regarding changes to border protocols, considering them unacceptable.
Context
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned on May 15 that Russia may prepare operations from Belarusian territory against Ukraine or NATO nations. Ukrainian intelligence continues to document attempts by Russia to further entangle Belarus in the conflict.
- Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskiy confirmed the potential threat of an offensive from Belarus in a May 19 interview with “Militarny. “
- On May 20, following a meeting of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s headquarters, Zelensky reported that the Russian military leadership is considering five scenarios for expanding the war through northern Ukraine. On the same day, the Russian defense ministry announced the deployment of nuclear munitions to storage points in Belarus as part of nuclear drills.
- On May 21, the SBU announced “unprecedented security measures” in regions bordering Russia and Belarus.



