An unexpected twist is Donald Trump's support for the country's prime minister, Nikol Pashinyan, who Yerevan (the capital of Armenia) calls a “helping wind.” This complicates the narrative of the pro-Russian opposition and strengthens the position of the head of government. Although Pashinyan is politically weakened by previous failures, the latest polls show his party has an advantage, and the election result is expected to be decisive for the future of Armenia and relations between the great powers.
The weight of choices is enormous. A historic turn in the country's politics is on the horizon, the largest since independence. There is a tug of war in Armenia between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, who is clearly surprised by Trump's actions in Armenia. We explain what is at stake, especially for the Kremlin. The situation is tense. There are even words about “betrayal of national interests”.
The Prime Minister of Armenia and his ruling party “Civic Agreement” are conducting an election campaign based on the program of creating a “real Armenia” (as opposed to “historical Armenia”):
Peace agreement with Azerbaijan: After losing Nagorno-Karabakh at the end of 2023, Pashinyan redefined the state's strategy. Insists on concluding a lasting peace with Baku, demarcating borders and opening trade corridors with Azerbaijan and Turkey
Geopolitical “turn”: Disappointed by the lack of response from Russia and the Agreement on Security and Cooperation Organization (CSTO) during Azerbaijan's offensive, Pashinyan is quickly moving Armenia away from Moscow and steering the country towards the European Union and the United States
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Against him stands a fragmented but vocal pro-Russian opposition, mainly blocs such as “Strong Armenia” (led by Russian-Armenian billionaire Samuel Karapetyan) and the “Alliance of Armenia” (Robert Kocharyan), which accuse Pashinyan of betrayal of national interests.
What's at stake for Putin
For official Moscow, these elections are the fight to retain the remaining influence in the South Caucasus. The stakes for Vladimir Putin are enormous for several reasons:
Loss of a strategic ally: Armenia has traditionally been Russia's main foothold in the region. Pashinyan's re-election would mean the final displacement of Russia's military and political presence (including the potential closure of the Russian military base in Gyumri)
Fear of the “Ukrainian scenario”: Putin has publicly issued stern warnings to Armenia, saying it must make a quick decision and that integration with Europe could bring dire consequences, clearly drawing a parallel with Ukraine and Moldova.
Hybrid and economic pressures: According to intelligence and analysis, the Kremlin launched one of the largest disinformation campaigns and cyber operations in recent history to oust Pashinyan.
At the same time, Russia is exerting economic pressure by introducing temporary measures bans on the import of Armenian products (such as Armenian cognac, wine and flowers) and threatening to suspend economic cooperation within the Eurasian Economic Union.
Trump's 180-degree turn and support for Pashinyan
The biggest surprise before these elections is US President Donald Trump's open and direct support for Prime Minister Pashinyan, which isa precedent in Trump's foreign policy in Eastern Europe (where he was more likely to support sovereignist and pro-Russian leaders such as Viktor Orban).
In late May 2026, Trump offered Pashinyan his “full and absolute support” on his Truth Social platform, calling him a “great friend and leader” and ending the message with “Make Armenia Great Again — MAGA!”
In August 2025, under the auspices of the Trump administration in Washington, Armenia and Azerbaijan reached a preliminary peace agreement. Trump sees Pashinyan as a key partner that shares his vision of “peace through economic prosperity”.
Trump wants a stable South Caucasus, open to Western investments and energy corridors bypassing both Russia and Iran.
The pro-Russian opposition in Armenia has traditionally built a narrative that Pashinyan is leading the country to ruin and that he is supported only by “globalist and liberal forces” from Brussels. Trump's support as a conservative and right-wing superpower leader has completely disrupted this dynamic. It is now much more difficult for the opposition to portray Pashinyan solely as a “Western puppet without a real mandate.”
Trump's move sparked outrage in Moscow and among Armenian nationalists, and the American president even sent Secretary of State Marco Rubio to visit Yerevan on the eve of the elections.
Pashinyan at a crossroads
Though Pashinyan bears enormous political burden for the loss of territory and historical traumas of 2020 and 2023pre-election polls favor his party, mainly due to the fragmentation of the opposition and the desire for stability and security among society.
Trump's “helping wind” has further strengthened Pashinyan's position on the international stage, while sending Putin a clear signal that Washington will not stand idly by as the Kremlin tries to keep Armenia in its orbit.
All eyes are on Armenia today, as the votes of a third of undecided voters will ultimately decide the fate of this Caucasian republic.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
