Various scenarios are being considered in the US capital – from secret military maneuvers, through sanctions, to a coup. The clock is ticking in the Pentagon. The presidential administration expects the collapse of the government in Cuba by the summer at the latest. Supposedly, Washington is already ready, reports the American website “Axios”, citing American officials.
US President Donald Trump himself does not want an invasion. Instead, it is now relying on sanctions and economic pressure – a strategy one official calls “accelerationism.” That is, consciously accelerating the fall.
The current actions against Havana are reminiscent of the successful operation against Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. But Trump officials see three key differences. In Maduro's case, Trump has already chosen Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as his successor. There is no clear plan in Cuba
The key to the solution may lie in another country: in January, the US detained Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and took him to the United States. This way Cuba's supply lines were interrupted. Maduro supplied oil to the island. Since then, no more Venezuelan oil reaches Cuba. The regime is currently left without electricity and without a functioning economy.
The article continues below the video
Military maneuvers in case of a crisis
In May, U.S. Southern Command conducted a war simulation to prepare for military operations. During the exercises, American generals discussed how they would respond to possible riots if Cubans took to the streets without electricity in the hot summer. However, a Trump adviser warned that “the president does not want troops on site for more than 48 hours.” “This could become a quagmire.” This could end badly.
In May 2026, the Donald Trump administration significantly increased pressure on Cuba, aligning it with Iran and Venezuela as a target of its “forced regime change” policy.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio is the architect of Trump's Latin America strategy. On May 7, he announced new sanctions against the Cuban arms industry. A key step was the bringing of criminal charges in the United States against former Cuban leader Raul Castro in connection with the shooting down of the organization's civilian planes. Brothers to the Rescue in 1996. Although Castro formally withdrew from politics in 2021, he remains a symbol and power base of the system.
Dangerous game
The timing of Rubio's sanctions and Castro's impeachment is reminiscent of Maduro's successful operation in Venezuela. But Trump officials notice three key differences: :
uncertain successor: in the case of Maduro, Trump has already chosen Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez as his successor. There is no clear plan in Cuba
power is decentralized: the Castro family distributed power 30 years ago
The US embargo is the law: unlike Venezuela, Trump cannot lift the Cuba embargo by decree. Only Congress can do it — and Miami's Cuban-American congressmen are taking a tough stance.
Donald Trump publicly spoke about the possibility of intervening or “taking over” Cuba, stating that “he could be the president who will do something with Cuba.” At the same time, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared that the US “would like regime change”, although the preferred path would be political and economic pressure, not open war.
At the same time, Washington imposed new sanctions and a de facto fuel blockade, which deepened the energy crisis on the island and triggered a wave of social protests. According to Reuters and AP, however, there have been initiatives in the US Congress to block the possible use of military force, which indicates that there is no formal, approved plan for the military overthrow of the authorities in Havana.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
