Putin's elites reveal his goals anonymously. “He is fixated on Donbas”
Russia has been bombing Ukrainian territory for over four years. Paradoxically, it is only today that it announces to the world that it is launching a series of systematic attacks on the facilities of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex in Kiev, as well as on the commands of the Ukrainian army.
The Kremlin also officially informed the White House about its plans – Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov asked Marco Rubio to convey this message directly to the US president. The US Secretary of State confirmed that he spoke by phone with Lavrov, adding that they discussed Russia's appeal to foreign diplomats to leave the Ukrainian capital.
“So we're done with Kiev. Whatever the reason, it's something new. Theoretically, a month should be enough for Kiev to become uninhabitable,” wrote Fighterbomber, a Russian Telegram channel followed by more than half a million users.
They didn't take Kiev in three days, and they won't take it in a month either
It didn't take long for Kiev to react.
“The level of security threats to Kiev and other Ukrainian cities from Russia is the same as in previous years and months,” the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said succinctly. It called the Russian threats shameless blackmail.
While the Ministry of Foreign Affairs used diplomatic expressions, its spokesman, Heorhiy Tychy, did not bite his tongue.
“Russia has been attacking Kiev with ballistic and guided missiles, as well as swarms of drones, for four years and three months on a weekly basis, killing civilians and causing destruction. Today it has drawn a completely 'new card' and is threatening… an attack on Kiev. What is behind this?” — wrote on X. Below, he created a survey with four options: “alcoholism,” “despair,” “lack of creativity,” and “all of the above.”
“The Russians intend to finish with Kiev in a month. Let me remind you that earlier they wanted to capture it in three days. The hysterical statements by the Russians about future attacks on Kiev are an act of desperation. The enemy sees that Ukraine's defense forces have increased the number of attacks deep inside Russia and are also attacking logistics in Crimea,” wrote Serhiy Sternenko, an advisor to the Minister of Defense, on Facebook.
Disappointed Russian elite
Ukrainian commentator Vitaly Portnikov believes that Sunday's massive missile attack proves Russian failure.
“This is exactly what Putin could never afford in the past. He has no extra money for the army – and yet he spends billions on an attack that will not change anything. It has not affected Ukraine's military-technical potential in any way. He cannot intimidate people, because intimidation can only be done in the first months of a war, not in its fifth year. The people who stayed in Ukraine have somehow become accustomed to such terrible attempts. [zastraszania]”- writes on Facebook.
At the same time, he notes that information has appeared in the Western media that the Russian president's entourage does not hide their disappointment. The Ukrainian commentator is probably referring to an article published in The Guardian – its authors quoted the words of some members of the Russian elite who complained on “deep disappointment in Putin.”
“There has certainly been a change in the mood among the elites this year. There is a growing feeling that some sort of disaster is approaching,” an anonymous Russian businessman told The Guardian. According to him, more and more Russians are talking about the Kremlin's “suicidal decisions”.
Putin believes that he will conquer the entire Donbas this year
Ukrainian commentator Portnikov believes that Russian elites are united by the desire for a rational leader, but Putin has not been acting in this way lately. Therefore, his next steps should be approached with even greater caution – because even after four years of military operations, the war has not brought Putin the desired result.
According to sources quoted by the British daily “The Guardian”, the Russian president may not have an accurate picture of the situation on the battlefield. For example, he is deeply convinced that the Russian army will be able to take control of the entire Donetsk region by the end of the year. According to one source, Vladimir Putin is “fixated on Donbas” and will not rest until he conquers this region in eastern Ukraine. It may be based on reports from his own generals, who – according to Ukrainian intelligence – allegedly convinced Putin that victory in Donbas was imminent.
However, the Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine is not yet gaining momentum that would allow the occupation army to reach the administrative borders of the northern part of the Donetsk Oblast by the end of the year. “But of course officials and the military paint rosy pictures for the president,” writes “The Guardian”, citing one of the sources.
The British daily also reports that some influential Russians — including Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov and deputy head of the presidential administration Sergei Kiriyenko — allegedly privately tried to dissuade Putin from some of the tougher restrictions on internet control. But to no avail
— As long as the war continues, Putin will put the interests of the security services ahead of him [nad interesy obywateli] – added a source close to the Kremlin.
The Russian attack could have cost hundreds of millions of dollars
Sunday's use of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile may also prove that Russian elites are behaving irrationally. It fell near the town of Bila Tserkva near Kiev. Ukrainians say Oreshnik destroyed three garages – rejecting the claim that the Russian superweapon caused any extensive destruction.
Although – according to Defense Express – Russian propagandists claim that the Oreshnik is equipped with special solutions that can destroy “secret underground shelters” while leaving only minor visible surface damage, analysts have initially estimated the impact energy at around 220 to 400 megajoules. According to them, this corresponds to the explosion of approximately 52 to 95 kg of TNT.
Although official sources confirm that Oreshnik hit the garages, according to expert Valery Romanenek, the Russians most likely tried to hit the aircraft plant where Russian bombers were once repaired. According to him, they must have had knowledge about the plant located near the airport and its equipment.
— The fact that the main part of the ammunition hit the garages that densely cover this zone proves the accuracy of Russian missiles, an expert commented ironically on Ukrainian Radio NV. He added that the price of the Russian missile could reach $40 million. (approx. PLN 146 million).
There are speculations in the media that on the night from Saturday to Sunday, the Russians fired as many as two Oreshniki, but one of them did not reach the target. It was intended to hit a target located in the occupied part of the Donetsk Oblast. A source cited by the US War Research Institute suggested that the missile could have hit near the towns of Avdiyivka or Yasynuvata, which are located about 40 km from the front line.
“If these reports are confirmed, it would mean that one of the four Oreshnik missiles that Russian forces have used so far during the war has suffered a failure,” the institute adds.
Some analysts estimated that Russia's attack on Kiev on Sunday could have cost it $361 million. (PLN 1.3 billion). The attack on the capital caused extensive damage to industrial and civilian infrastructure and claimed three lives.
