“Can China and the US Overcome the Thucydides Trap?”. What Xi Jinping's implied message means to Donald Trump
A staple of foreign policy analysis, including for former Trump strategist Steve Bannon, the Thucydides Trap refers to the idea that when a rising power threatens to supplant an established one, the result is often war, The Guardian and New York Times write.
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping discussed the Iran war and a potential conflict that could break out, the Chinese leader said, if the issue of Taiwan is not handled properly.
But China's president also brought up another war, an old one. In his opening speech on Thursday, Xi referenced ancient Greece's Peloponnesian War, a decades-long conflict that erupted between Athens and Sparta in 431 BC.
“Can China and the United States overcome the so-called 'Thucydides Trap' and create a new paradigm for great power relations?” Xi asked.
What is the Thucydides Trap
A staple of foreign policy analysis, including for former Trump strategist Steve Bannon, the Thucydides Trap refers to the idea that when a rising power threatens to supplant an established one, the result is often war.
“The rise of Athens and the fear it caused in Sparta made war inevitable,” wrote Thucydides in his book, History of the Peloponnesian War.
The suggestion now is that China's rise is causing concern and risks conflict with the US.
The Taiwan Warning
Observers have noted that Xi has been using the term for years, but that he resorted to the classic reference during Trump's visit could be an indication of his stance on Taiwan.
The Chinese leader later warned Trump that any misstep on Taiwan could push the two countries into “conflict.”
“The Taiwan issue is the most important issue in China-US relations,” Xi said, referring to the self-governing island that China claims.
“If mishandled, the two countries could come into conflict, pushing the entire relationship between China and the US into an extremely dangerous situation,” he added.
What Trump says
At a banquet on Wednesday evening, the Chinese leader struck a more conciliatory tone, insisting that the US and China could manage the seemingly inevitable friction.
“Achieving the great renaissance of the Chinese nation and bringing America back to greatness can perfectly go hand in hand and promote the welfare of the whole world,” Xi said.
In a reaction on social media, Trump said Xi “very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps a nation in decline.”
Of course, however, this was not a reference to the US under his leadership, Trump said.
“Two years ago, we were, in fact, a nation in decline,” Trump said, in an attack on Joe Biden.
“Today, the United States is the most dynamic nation in the entire world, and we hope that our relationship with China will be stronger and better than ever!” he said.
