Crises, loans and instability. Challenges of Polish millennials
Economists call it “scar effect”. Entering the labor market during a downturn or high unemployment permanently reduces future income and increases the risk of subsequent unemployment. Polish millennials, like their peers across Europe, have experienced this phenomenon.
In Poland, the problem was not the scale of unemployment itself, but the quality of employment. While in Western Europe youth unemployment in 2013 reached up to 63.7%. in Greece and 56.2 percent in Spain, in our country this indicator was 27.3 percent. However, a common plague was the “littering” of the labor market. The millennial generation was massively pushed towards “flexible forms of employment”, depriving them of a basic sense of security and stability.
Today, despite the improvement in economic conditions, approximately 1.45 million people in Poland still work exclusively on a contract basis. A similar problem affected Germany, where 11 percent employees were stuck in the so-called mini-jobs – low-paid jobs without the right to a pension.
However, in many aspects Poles differ from Germans and other nations.
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— What definitely distinguishes Polish millennials from their European peers, but also from their parents, is the common experience of labor migration, says Katarzyna Topczewska, HR Business Partner at ADP Polska. — Young people started leaving en masse in 2004, right after Poland joined the EU. In 2007, almost two and a half million Poles lived abroad, of which up to two thirds were people under 35 years of age.
Some of them stayed there permanently, but most of them were short trips, sometimes shuttle trips. This experience had a profound impact on an entire generation and their families – almost everyone knew someone who left.
As the expert explains, this “migration bonus” worked on several levels. First of all, it was safety valvewhen youth unemployment was skyrocketing in Poland. Secondly, she brought it transfer of capital and experience.
— While working abroad, Poles learned the local organizational culture and know-how, established contacts that they later used. At some point, the catering industry in Poland began to develop rapidly, new concepts were created, and there was great openness to new flavors – today we can safely say that this is the result of migration – notes Topczewska.
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The migration experience had an equally significant impact on the IT and start-up industries and the entire shared services sector in large Polish cities.
This explains why Polish millennials emerged from the crisis in better shape than their peers from southern Europe. The difference lay in the moment of emigration. Poles left en masse immediately after joining the EU, when Great Britain and Ireland opened their labor markets and Europe was still growing. At the peak (2007), they earned good money abroad and could return with capital and experience. Greeks and Spaniards only started emigrating in 2010, when their labor markets had already collapsed – they set out out of desperation, often staying abroad permanently.
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A generation sick of ambition
The migration experience also had its price. As Katarzyna Topczewska notes, migration and the accompanying high ambition, tendency to compete, as well as “catching up” in consumption compared to millennials from the West, also influenced the work culture in Poland.
— Trends such as work-life balance appeared much later. Millennials statistically work more hours than their peers in Germany, France or the Netherlands. In many cases, they have only recently begun to admit that they do not want to be constantly available to the employer, adds the expert.
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From garbage trucks to the employee's market
However, the situation of Polish 30- and 40-year-olds in 2026 looks radically different than that of their peers from the south.
Poland has avoided the deep regional divisions that plague Italy and Spain. According to Eurostat data, in 2024, in the group of ten EU regions with the lowest unemployment rate, the majority were regions from Poland and the Czech Republic.
The rate of young people not working or studying (NEET) in Poland dropped in 2024 to approx. 10.5-11.4 percentapproaching the EU average. Meanwhile in Italy it is still there approx. 16-19 percent depending on the age group. This is the structural exclusion of a large part of the generation from economic life.
While their Spanish peers have struggled with mass temporary employment for years, Polish 30- and 40-year-olds have experienced a historic shift from an employer's market to an employee's market. The economic slowdown in 2025 has weakened this advantagebut despite this, unemployment remains at a record low level (3.2% according to Eurostat data as of December 2025), and staff shortages may still give this group a strong negotiating position. As long as they are flexible enough.
A single-track direction for the transformation of the labor market
Staff shortages in Poland today concern mainly crafts and technical professions – electricians, welders, mechanics. This is the result of millennials' massive push for higher education.
– This is the first generation that mass strived to obtain a university diploma, and their parents strongly supported them in this – says Katarzyna Topczewska. — While vocational schools were declining in our country and the emphasis was placed on the high school leaving exam, in countries such as Austria or Germany the education system was still promoting other professional paths that offered prospects on the labor market. In Poland, we still see the effect of the “diploma bonus” – adds the expert.
Residential glass ceiling
If the labor market is a bright spot in the lives of Polish millennials, the housing market is their biggest failure. Poland's situation here is bizarre: we have a high percentage of owner-occupied apartments (a legacy of privatization after the Polish People's Republic), but terrible availability for people wanting to buy their first “M”.
Okay. 27 percent Polish households fall into the so-called rent gap – they earn too much to get a municipal apartment, but too little to afford a loan or commercial lease.
Apartment prices in Poland remain at record high levels. Compared to their parents' generation, today's 30-year-olds are much less likely to own property.
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There is also the problem of overpopulation – the apartment overcrowding rate in Poland is 33.7%. and is almost twice as high as the EU average (16.9%). This is the fourth worst place in the entire EU.
Still Polish millennials decide to take out a mortgage loan earlier than their Western peers. — Poles are more inclined to take on liabilities and try to buy a flat relatively early, notes Katarzyna Topczewska. This is the result of both the lack of an extensive rental market and the culture of “catching up” on consumption after years of transformation. While in Berlin or Amsterdam 30-year-olds rent without any pressure to own, in Poland the belief prevails that “it is better to repay your loan than someone else's”. Not having your own apartment is still perceived as a failure in life.
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Staff shortages shape their future
What distinguishes the situation of Polish millennials is the long-term demand for their work resulting from demographics. The forecasts of the Polish Economic Institute are inexorable: by 2035, the Polish labor market will shrink by over 2 million employees (approx. 12.6% of the current state). The greatest shortages will affect education, industry and health care.
Although the wage pressure weakened slightly at the turn of 2025 and 2026, experts predict that in the long run the shrinking market will strengthen it again.
For today's 30- and 40-year-olds, this theoretically means greater job security and rising wages, but also the need to support the growing number of retirees. The so-called demographic dependency ratio, which may mean further burdens on the working population.
The sandwich generation is in eternal pursuit of a better life
Polish 30- and 40-year-olds found each other between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, they are doing better financially and professionally than their peers from southern Europe, escaping the specter of unemployment. On the other hand, they have not achieved the housing and capital stability of their peers from the richer West, and their savings remain much lower (10.2% compared to the EU average of 14.5% according to Eurostat).
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The problem also has a demographic dimension. They will bear the burden of caring for aging parents (Poland is among the EU countries where the problem of population aging is growing the fastest). At the same time, they must raise their own children in conditions of shortages of public services and expensive housing. Their success is that they have jobs and growing salaries. Their tragedy is that this may not be enough to catch up with the living standards of the Western middle class.
