Expert Forum: Romania already imports 76% of its oil and will become dependent on American gas
Romania is trapped in a false narrative of “energy patriotism”, while the real data shows a critical dependence on imports and a counterproductive resistance to European modernization policies, according to an analysis published on Friday by the think tank Expert Forum (EFOR).
The analysis also cites a press investigation carried out by HotNews which shows that “last months Minister Ivan would have pressured Transgaz and Romgaz to conclude contracts for the purchase of American liquefied gas for a quantity of 1.5 billion cubic meters”.
According to the EFOR analysis, almost two-thirds of the population lives with the illusion that the country has immense hydrocarbon resources, although the statistical reality indicates an irreversible natural decline of domestic deposits.
The EFOR analysis, based on a survey carried out in April 2026 on a sample of 1,187 people (error 2.8%), reveals that sovereignist propaganda has convinced the electorate that Romania is an “Eldorado” of oil and gas. This perception is fueled by political discourses that reject privatizations and European decarbonisation mechanisms (ETS), under the pretext of saving national industry, EFOR claims.
We import 76% of our oil and risk massive gas shortages
The figures presented by the experts dismantle the idea of energy independence through fossil fuels. Regarding petol, Romania currently imports 76% of its consumption needs. Domestic production has fallen by more than 25% over the past decade and is expected to reach just 10 million barrels per year by 2050, half of current levels.
On natural gas, although the Neptun Deep project will bring an extra 7.2 billion cubic meters annually, the government's massive network expansion strategy (through the Saligny program) will increase consumption by approximately 10 billion cubic meters, EFOR says.
EFOR warns that, from 2029-2030, Romania will import over 10 billion cubic meters of gas, exceeding the current production of 8.5 billion cubic meters.
The report highlights a paradigm shift hidden from the public eye: instead of independence, Romania seems to be opting for a new dependence, this time on American liquefied gas.
Green transit
Another major conclusion of the analysis concerns the European Emissions Trading Mechanism (EU ETS). Although Romanian officials, including President Nicușor Dan, have called for the moderation of this mechanism, the data show that Romania is a net beneficiary of the EU's environmental policies, according to EFOR experts.
”The idea that we should be against a scheme where we pay €1 to get €3 in return is some of the worst investment advice,” the report notes.
Through the Modernization Fund, Romania has access to amounts between 10 and 16 billion euros until 2030. For example, in 2024, Romania received net 2 billion euros from decarbonization policies. In contrast, subsidizing the Oltenia Energy Complex for the payment of emission certificates cost the state budget more than 1 billion euros between 2020 and 2025, without the promised restructuring investments being completed, experts also say.
EFOR claims that “energy patriotism” is a “populist trick” that makes the country vulnerable in the long term. Experts warn that, by undermining European cohesion and refusing modern technologies in favor of power plants since 1965, Romania risks becoming a “Trojan horse” of external geopolitical interests, losing the chance of a real economic modernization with European money.
