“Ukraine has found a way to stop the Russian advance,” said Austrian historian and federal army officer Markus Reisner in an interview with ntv television. In his opinion, the expert community is already talking about a “Ukrainian miracle”.
According to ISW, the pace of Russian gains on the front has been steadily declining since November last year — not only because of ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks, but also because of the blockade of Starlink satellite internet terminals in Ukraine. The Russians, like the Ukrainians, also used them to coordinate their own units. Added to this is the fact that the Kremlin has blocked the Telegram platform. This exacerbates communication problems.
There is another key factor that makes it difficult for Russians to move forward — and that is beyond their control.
Because of him, the Russians were literally stuck and the war became a quagmire from which there was no escape. It's about a weather phenomenon called rasputica. We are talking about the period in March and April when the frozen ground melts and at the same time spring rains appear. As a result, armored vehicles get stuck in the mud, and mechanized troops have difficulty moving forward.
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This phenomenon is also known from history. It played, among others, role in Napoleon's expedition to Moscow, as well as during World War II, thwarting the plans of the German army on the Eastern Front.
It can be expected that in May and June, when the land becomes drier, it will be easier for Russian troops to move again. But even then, they will still face fundamental challenges.
– They were left without Starlink [Rosjanie] practically reverted to communication from the times of the Cold War – says a Ukrainian soldier nicknamed Konosz in an interview with the Kyiv Post (Onet's partner).
— It gave us a real advantage. We were able to take advantage of weaknesses when their communication system was destabilized, adds the Ukrainian company commander codenamed Luna in an interview for the Kyiv Post.
According to an analysis by The Wall Street Journal, Ukraine has retaken the most territory in two years after Russian troops lost the ability to communicate and coordinate actions on the battlefield in February.
And this is not the end of problems for the Russians. Ukrainian drones are currently causing them quite a problem on the front.
50-kilometer death zone
According to expert Marcus Reisner, thanks to the mass use of drones, the Ukrainian army managed to create a 50 km wide “death zone” on the front. “They can [drony] detect and neutralize even the smallest assault troops,” says the expert. “This is very beneficial for the defenders.”
Meanwhile, the focus of the fighting is shifting – primarily towards Konstantinivka in the Donetsk Oblast.
“We will hear a lot about this city in the coming weeks and months,” predicts Reisner on ntv.de. Konstantinivka is the southernmost point of the Ukrainian fortress belt in the Kiev-controlled part of the Donetsk Oblast.
Breaking it is the primary goal of Russian forces, as it would enable Putin's army to advance deeper into Ukraine. According to the expert, the Russians have already occupied a quarter of the city. This strategically important place is now becoming a hot spot on the war map.
However, Reisner also warns that there are still problems on the Ukrainian side. Kiev's main problem is the lack of soldiers. However, as the expert said, Ukraine “once again managed to get up, raise its shield and repel the Russians.”
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
