Donald Trump's administration says its naval blockade is putting pressure on Iran and that the regime has just “a few days” left before an energy crisis — unless Tehran succumbs.
Energy experts are skeptical and believe the White House is misjudging both the timing of damage to Iran's oil industry and the regime's ability to withstand the hardships.
The stalemate comes as oil prices reached a low on Thursday the highest level in four yearsand the average price at gas stations increased to $4.30. (at the current exchange rate PLN 15) per gallon (i.e. approx. 3.7 liters of fuel). Democrats, wanting to use their advantage, publicly accuse Republicans of rising costs.
Leading Republican politicians are increasingly concerned about the risk of losing their majority in the Senate.
Still, White House officials say the naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — through which about 20 percent of world's oil and gas supplies – is paralyzing Iran and will soon leave the regime with no choice but to meet President Donald Trump's demands.
“If you look at the economic pressure that the Iranian nation is under right now, it should be unacceptable to any civilized leader,” White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett told reporters on Thursday.
Iranian opportunities
According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the regime has a few days until it runs out of storage capacity, after which “Iran's fragile oil wells will be shut down.” On Wednesday, Trump told Axios that Iran's warehouses and pipelines are “on the verge of exploding.”
Bessent wrote on
But energy experts such as Robin Mills, CEO of Qamar Energy and a former European Union consultant in Iraq, say Iran has much larger storage capacitythan administration officials think. They believe that a slow lockdown strategy will only guarantee prolonged disruptions to energy supplies that will further weaken the global economy.
— They're not [irańskie władze] in the mood to give up, warns Mills.
They know the clock is ticking not only for them, but also for the United States and the rest of the global economy, and they believe their clock is ticking slower.
U.S. miscalculations
Iranians ridicule the administration's focus on storage and production capacity. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who plays a key role in the negotiating team, said there was no risk of the wells “exploding”.
“Three days have passed, no wells have blown,” he wrote on X. “We could extend it to 30 days and broadcast live from that well. This was one of those useless pieces of advice that the US administration gets from people like Bessent, who also promote the blockade theory and pushed the price of oil to over $120 (PLN 435). Next stop: 140 (PLN 507). The problem is not the theory, but the way of thinking.”
While it is clear that the US blockade is destroying Iran's economy, the issue of oil storage is a separate issue that Tehran will likely not have to grapple with until until the end of May, or maybe even longer – says Gregory Brew, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, who specializes in oil and gas geopolitics, with particular emphasis on Iran.
Iran has a long history of enduring harsh conditions to achieve war goals. “We would need to see the blockade maintained and aggressively enforced for another month before Iran begins to reduce production,” Brew points out.
The article continues below the video
Tehran has experience
According to research company Kpler, Iran currently has supplies for about 20 days. It may also continue to use empty oil tankers at sea that cannot sail out of the Strait of Hormuz. According to TankerTrackers.com, one of the leading companies monitoring ship movements, the Iranians have up to six weeks of storage capacity left, taking into account only empty tankers already in the Persian Gulf.
And while the blockade clearly “hits Iran where it hurts” in terms of fueling inflation, the real financial pressure “will only affect Iran's oil revenues in three to four months, limiting its effectiveness,” writes Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi. He points out that at this point Iran's oil revenues would decrease by up to $250 million. (PLN 906 million) per day.
One White House official says unofficially that Iran is losing $500 million. (PLN 1.8 billion) per day. — The blockade put enormous economic pressure on Iran, giving American negotiators full blown advantage in the work on the agreement — notes the source.
Iran has repeatedly shut down wells due to various crises over the years and knows how to avoid catastrophic damage to its production, according to Qamar Energy's Mills. He believes that once the lockdown ends — even if many wells have been closed — the country will likely immediately resume about 70 percent of its operations. production and will reach full capacity within a few months.
— I don't think it will have disastrous or even harmful consequences for the Iranian oil industry, the expert emphasizes. — They had already significantly reduced production and did it without exploding shafts and pipelines.
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
