at the VTB forum, expert opinions on the state of the Russian economy were divided / News of the economy of Krasnoyarsk and the Krasnoyarsk Territory / Newslab.Ru

The Russian economy is slowing down and the labor market remains difficult, but there is no consensus among experts on whether the current situation can be called a crisis. At the panel of economists at the VTB Investment Forum “RUSSIA CALLING!” in Nizhny Novgorod, assessments ranging from “no crisis” to “tectonic shifts” were made.

Dean of the Faculty of Financial Economics at MGIMO Igbal Guliyev said that the economy is adapting to changes and there is no crisis. His colleague at MGIMO, Professor Natalya Zubarevich, on the contrary, described the situation in one word – “instability”, noting the presence of crisis industries and those who are waiting for a recession.

Chief Economist of the Institute of Growth Economics named after. Boris Kopeikin reassured Stolypin: there will be no massive reduction in wages and unemployment this year: “RThere will be work, and they will also pay for it. Therefore, is it a crisis or not a crisis, everyone answers this question for themselves, of course“

And the dean of the Faculty of Economics and Business of the Financial University, Ekaterina Bezsmertnaya, called what was happening a deliberate cooling, emphasizing that tectonic shifts are taking place in the economy: industries, cash flows are changing, and new priorities are emerging.

The picture is also heterogeneous by industry. Guliyev believes that Russia will remain a raw materials power for a long time. Zubarevich clarified: the sanctions affected metallurgists – the decline in steel production in 2024–2025 was about 4–5%:

“The rest are more likely affected by the global situation. These are not sanctions. Bad market conditions make it difficult to sell. Or the introduction of duties on all types of agricultural products. And in the conditions of a not very good agricultural year in 2024 and 2025, the profitability of grain producers and oil producers is decreasing… [В контексте текущего конфликта на Ближнем Востоке] fertilizers benefit immediately, they grow. The production of mineral fertilizers last year grew by 7%, and now in the first two months of this year it has increased by 5%, because the market is open, prices are rising, and the largest producers of nitrogen fertilizers are locked in the strait. In addition to fertilizers, liquefied gas also benefits. If Europe is smart enough not to close LNG to Europe, then Novatek, of course, will win…”

Kopeikin admitted that sanctions are a big hindrance and noted the difficulty of achieving aircraft production targets by 2030. And Bezsmertnaya reported that, despite all the difficulties, the transition to a technological economy is underway:

“The transition from a raw materials and manufacturing economy to a more technological one is underway… For example, the state corporation VEB.RF, which cooperates with the largest banks, is now financing a huge number of projects that really change the appearance of cities, which in the near future, again not tomorrow, maybe not even the day after tomorrow, will nevertheless increase the income of individual territories. Construction is currently underway to enrich a new plant in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. And it is expected that when it starts working, copper exports will increase by 25% in the country.”