The year 2026 promises to be a real test of survival for the domestic business environment. After a period in which corporate insolvencies exploded globally, with an average increase estimated at 19%, companies in Romania now face a huge risk of default, an analysis shows.
The unpaid bills crisis is hitting the economy. Archive photo
According to experts in the reorganization of companies in difficulty, the macroeconomic context is increasingly complicated. Geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation and high supply chain costs have severely reduced the cash reserves of many entrepreneurs. In Romania, this vulnerability is directly accentuated by risky commercial practices, where late payment has become an unwritten rule of the market.
The statistics underline an extremely harsh reality for businesses here. Sierra Quadrant data indicates that more than four out of ten invoices issued between business partners are paid late. Moreover, the average collection period exceeded the critical threshold of 46 days. There are many reported cases where the money does not reach the accounts of the suppliers only after 60 days.
“This is not just a temporary blip, but points to a serious structural problem that will not resolve itself. A debtor's liquidity difficulties can also be betrayed by a high rate of defaulted or repeatedly delayed payment commitments. Also, the sudden shift from full payment of invoices to partial and piecemeal payments clearly shows that the client's funds have been exhausted”the Sierra Quadrant analysis shows.
Experts also warn of the rise of artificial trade disputes, where sudden complaints about the quality of goods are used exclusively as a pretext for delaying payments.
Moreover, anomalies in order volume, whether we're talking about sudden drops or unusually large orders placed on credit ahead of a possible crash, complete the picture of imminent risk. Companies that manage to correlate all these internal indicators with external partner data gain a huge competitive advantage.
,,This huge pressure on cash flow is compounded by another structural vulnerability. Almost 52% of sales in the domestic B2B sector are made on the basis of commercial credit. While this practice gives customers the flexibility they need, it directly exposes suppliers to liquidity shocks and major credit risk.”says Ovidiu Neacșu, Sierra Quadrant coordinating partner.
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The numbers do not give much cause for optimism. In the first quarter alone, over 1,600 Romanian companies became insolvent. They left behind colossal debts, of almost 2.74 billion lei, affecting the jobs of over 7,000 employees.
According to experts, the real test of survival for a company is not issuing the invoice, but collecting the money.
In an increasingly volatile economic environment, the vulnerability of businesses in Romania is dangerously built at the intersection of three major factors. It's about the growing dependence on logistics and energy costs, the endless delivery times and profit margins too thin to absorb price shocks. When these elements overlap, credit risk explodes, bringing companies to the brink.
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Sectors sailing on thin ice
A close look at the domestic business ecosystem reveals several massively exposed economic branches. The transportation and logistics industry, for example, operates with minimal structural profit margins. In this area, a simple 15 or 20 percent increase in the price of fuel or insurance can turn a profitable operator into a cash-flow negative one in just a few months.
“The situation is not much rosier either in the field of constructions and projects with phased settlement. The specifics of these contracts entail a long cycle of money rotation, where the average invoice collection period has already exceeded the critical threshold of 60 days. Here, a single payment delay triggers a devastating domino effect on the entire supply chain”, say the experts.
The list of vulnerable industries also includes energy-intensive manufacturing sectors such as metallurgy and chemistry, hit hard by the volatility of energy tariffs.
The same stress is being felt in non-food retail, which is suffering from the twin pressures of rising operating costs and slowing inventory sales. At the opposite pole, sectors such as pharmaceuticals, food and utilities benefit from steady demand and show much greater resilience, although supply chain risks require close monitoring.
According to the Sierra Quadrant analysis, financial managers must give up the illusion of security provided by a seemingly clean balance sheet. These documents reflect a financial reality that is six to twelve months old, a delay that can be fatal in a volatile market. The true health of a business partner is read in real-time operational indicators.
The end of the era of “sales at any price”
Saving companies lies in building a mature risk management system. It all starts from the basic principle that a transaction is only truly completed when the money has actually entered the account, not when the goods have left the warehouse.
“Without clear business protection measures, this dangerous non-payment trend will inevitably deepen during this year”, analysis shows.
Sierra Quadrant experts recommend that managers abandon purely reactive approaches and start anticipating challenges.
“Constant monitoring of the creditworthiness of new and traditional customers has become vital. At the same time, the use of safe financial instruments, such as trade credit insurance, helps to transfer risk and insure survival of the company when a partner becomes insolvent”says Ovidiu Neacșu.
