A less visible war is taking place in the Middle East, centered on Iranian-backed Iraqi militias that have launched dozens of drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states during the five-week war, the WSJ reports. It is a war in the shadow of another war, which risks pushing some of the world's largest oil-producing states into direct confrontation.
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According to a Saudi assessment cited by sources close to the situation, around half of the nearly 1,000 drone attacks on the kingdom would have been launched from Iraqi territory. Among the targets were a refinery in the Yanbu complex, a strategic oil hub on the Red Sea, as well as oil fields in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province.
The attacks were not limited to Saudi Arabia. Drones launched from Iraq have targeted Kuwait's only civilian airport, as well as Bahrain, even after US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire earlier this month. At the same time, militias also attacked Gulf state targets inside Iraq, including the Kuwaiti consulate in Basra and the United Arab Emirates consulate in Kurdistan.
A war within a war
This conflict unfolded against the background of the war launched at the end of February by the United States and Israel against Iran. Tehran retaliated by launching thousands of drones and missiles at its Gulf neighbors, but also at Israel and US bases in the region.
On the other hand, the intervention of Iraqi militias and Lebanese Hezbollah has expanded Iran's ability to strike its adversaries, giving it additional options and increased firepower.
The United States has warned that pro-Iranian militias are preparing new attacks and asked American citizens to avoid the embassy and consulates in Iraq. The US Embassy in Baghdad has been repeatedly targeted and has significantly reduced its staff.
Shia militias in Iraq emerged amid the chaos created after the US invasion in 2003. Initially, they defended Shia communities against Sunni militants and fought against US troops, considered occupation forces. Iran supplied them with weaponry, and they later played an important role in the fight against Islamic State after the 2014 offensive.
Today, there are dozens of such groups, with some 250,000 members, billions of dollars in funds and arsenals that include long-range missiles. The most influential of them, such as Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq, have strong ties to both the Iraqi and Iranian governments.
Over time, these groups have frequently threatened Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait because of these states' relations with the US and their opposition to Iran. There have also been sporadic attacks, such as the 2021 attack on the royal compound in Riyadh.
All six crew members of the American refueling plane shot down in Iraq have died. A pro-Iranian group claimed responsibility for the attack
Compared to the conflict last June, when the militias did not play a significant role, the current situation is different. The Iranian regime now faces an existential threat, and this is prompting allied groups to act more aggressively, and in some cases directly under the coordination of the Iranian military. The recent visit to Baghdad of General Esmail Qaani, a top officer in the Revolutionary Guards in charge of relations with militias abroad, confirms this involvement.
A potential war ground
The Gulf states, plagued by targeted attacks on energy infrastructure, see Iraq as a terrain where they can retaliate without striking Iran directly and risking a major escalation. Analysts suggest Saudi Arabia could launch warning strikes on Iraqi territory, while Kuwait and Bahrain could allow the US to use their bases for strikes against militias.
“Iraq is where we can all fight back, the target is legitimate,” appreciates Michael Knights, director of research at the strategic consulting firm Horizon Engage and associate researcher at the Washington Institute think tank. “If they want to prove that no one can attack them without consequence, this is a suitable place to show their strength.”
Tensions are also rising between the Iraqi government and its Gulf neighbors, as the influence of the militias sometimes exceeds the authority of the state, a situation compared to that of Hezbollah in Lebanon, analysts explain. That complicates regional cooperation efforts and raises questions about Baghdad's ability to control these groups.
“The Iraqi government must exercise control,” pointed out Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg, Deputy Secretary General for Political Affairs and Negotiations at the Gulf Cooperation Council, an intergovernmental organization that brings together the six Gulf monarchies.
The situation is compounded by internal political instability in Iraq, where disputes over government formation after November elections have weakened central authority. Former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, known for his ties to Iran and militias, was seen as the favorite to return to power before opposition from Donald Trump.
Experts warn that amid threats to the regime in Tehran, pro-Iranian militias are motivated to step up attacks to destabilize the region and demonstrate the costs of a war against Iran. Their strategy is to disrupt and escalate tensions, in a conflict that risks expanding beyond current borders.
Militias are less restrained than they were just a few years ago, and the Revolutionary Guards are becoming more involved in supporting their attacks, said Renad Mansour, director of the Iraq Initiative project at Chatham House (London).
“The prospect of regime collapse, fragmentation or degradation even in Tehran, especially for these resistance groups, is existential because that is their main source of power,” says Mansour. “The strategy of Iran and therefore of these groups under Iranian command in this war is to sabotage, disrupt and show the consequences” the war against Iran.
