Trump is at war, Republicans are in fear. “Ask if people feel richer”
President Donald Trump and his administration were already well on their way to convincing Americans that the United States was indeed entering a new “golden era.” However, the war with Iran thwarted this plan.
A POLITICO analysis found that since the beginning of the war, the president has spent less time raising affordability issues in his public appearances and much more time talking about the U.S. military and the conflict in the Middle East.
In January, Trump talked about affordability much more often than he did about war and U.S. military activities — more than four times as often in some weeks. He touched on this topic in the vast majority of public speeches, both in Washington and while traveling in states such as North Carolina, Georgia and Michigan.
In March, the trend reversed. Since the attack on Iran, Trump has talked about the conflict more than twice as often as he has talked about affordability. Before the war began, Trump devoted about 10 percent of his time to the cost of living issue. speaking time – currently it is less than half. And this is important because affordability is the most important topic for Americans. And it may determine the outcome of a crucial election for Republicans.
Nobody expects the president to talk only about egg prices during a war. Even before its outbreak, however, Republicans were worried that Trump is losing this message fight going abroad too often and not focusing enough on financial matters.
After subsequent declines in support for Trump recorded at the beginning of the year and caused mainly by Americans' economic concerns, the president and his entourage announced that he would start focusing on improving Americans' gloomy economic mood. He would do this through weekly speeches across the country – starting in Iowa, where he delivered his first major economic speech of the year.
But Republicans privately fear that the war and the accompanying soaring gasoline prices have done lasting damage to the president's economic message, which they viewed as the only argument to gain voter support. There is little or no time left to correct course—even if the two-week ceasefire with Iran holds.
Republicans fear that the president's focus on an unpopular war has lost three crucial months before the midterm elections that he could have used to improve the economy.
“Republicans really need an end to the war,” says an anonymous Republican strategist from Georgia. — We need an immediate, as soon as possible reduction in fuel prices at gas stations. Trump must credibly claim victory on this issue and then focus on a message about increasing the well-being of all Americans.
Democrats have gained a unique opportunity
POLITICO's analysis included Trump's public statements and posts on Truth Social from January 1 to April 9, excluding question-and-answer sessions with journalists.
White House spokesman Kush Desai, in a statement provided to POLITICO, pointed to several Trump economic policy statements — including two executive orders related to housing and the introduction of new prescription drugs at discounted prices through TrumpRx. He said it's a sign that the war hasn't distracted the president from the issue of affordability.
“Even as he took historic action to neutralize the Iranian terrorist threat, President Trump never lost sight of his goal of putting more money back into the pockets of hardworking Americans,” Desai said. “Both President Trump and his administration will continue to do two things at once.”
But Democratic strategists are eagerly awaiting the opportunity they believe the president has given them. While they deny that Trump was gaining support on his affordability promises before the war, the global economic chaos caused by growing conflict in the Middle East has given them a sharp, clear argument about who voters should blame for high prices.
– It's rare that someone has the opportunity to land a punch so clean on someone. That's a rarity in politics, says longtime Democratic strategist James Carville. – You can see and feel it. There is one reason why prices have gone up. It wasn't a coincidence of events, Trump simply took actions that limited supply, which caused prices to rise.
POLITICO used artificial intelligence to analyze Trump's remarks, which covered everything from an unannounced stop at a Whataburger restaurant in Texas to his State of the Union address to Congress. The system flagged any sentence in which Trump talked about affordability and the cost of living — taxes, gas prices, the ability to buy a home and more — or ongoing U.S. military actions.
When it comes to the first four months of the year, a clear pattern is emerging in both Trump's verbal statements and his posts on Truth Social. At the beginning of the year, topics related to affordability dominate over those related to war. In February, both issues begin to even out. In March, the topic of war comes to the fore.
A shift towards affordability that hasn't happened
It wasn't supposed to be this way. After a string of Democratic victories in the 2025 elections fueled by an aggressive message on affordability, White House deputy chief of staff James Blair promised that Trump would be “very, very focused on prices and the cost of living.”
Americans' dissatisfaction with the economy was clearly reflected in the poll results. Therefore, Vice President JD Vance introduced a new point of discussion, announcing that “2026 will be a great year for the American economy” – because the provisions of the Republican Party's One Big Beautiful Bill will come into force. He urged Americans to be patient.
Republicans were eagerly waiting for the president to hit the campaign trail to talk about the coming economic benefits of the domestic spending package. The bill was carefully designed to take some of its more popular provisions — including no taxes on tips, overtime and Social Security — into effect in the spring, just as Americans are starting to pay attention to the midterm elections.
Exxon gas station near the Capitol building in Washington, D.C., showing gas prices above $5. (PLN 18) per gallon, March 31, 2026Andrew Harnik / Staff / Getty Images
Next week is tax time, and although tax refunds have increased by about 11%. compared to last year, Americans are more pessimistic about the economy than ever. In a POLITICO poll conducted last month, affordability was the most important issue for American voters. Nearly half of respondents said high cost of living was their biggest concern.
White House advisers continue to insist that an economic recovery is coming and that the country will quickly recover from the effects of the war – almost as soon as it ends. They point to the example of stock prices, which rebounded after news of the ceasefire — although they remain below pre-war levels. Similarly, oil prices have risen steadily since the beginning of the war, then dropped slightly after the announcement of the ceasefire, but are still significantly higher than last year.
The arguments Trump will make in Nevada
That's the argument Trump plans to make next week when he travels to Nevada, the state that inspired his promise to eliminate the tip tax. This visit may be a signal of an upcoming rhetorical reset – the US president apparently wants to close the chapter on the war. However, it is unclear whether there is enough time for this reset to take effect.
— Voters usually make decisions about the economy in July of the election year, says a person close to the White House. -Three months left. I don't see any chance of that.
In March, a little less than two weeks after the war began, Trump visited a packaging plant in northern Kentucky. Twelve minutes into his speech, he touched on affordability issues – he said that America's 401K retirement funds had grown and that thanks to his big bill, plant workers wouldn't be taxed for overtime. He added that the midterm elections will be crucial to maintaining this type of success. But then the war with Iran came to the fore
Smoke rising over Tehran after the Israeli attack on the Shahran fuel base, June 15, 2025. The topic of this war dominated Trump's rhetoricGetty Images/Stringer/Getty Images
—More Americans are working today than ever before in history. And that number will be… wait until you see the year-end numbers. We made a trip, he said, referring to the war with Iran. — Do you know what a trip is? We had to go on a little expedition to get rid of some bad, very bad people.
On Truth Social he followed a similar pattern. At the beginning of the year, as many as one in four posts concerned affordability. In early April, the frequency of such content was halved, and since then every fourth post has been about war.
The greatest difficulties in implementing Trump's economic program may occur in the western part of the country, where gasoline prices are the highest in the entire country. According to GasBuddy, in Nevada they run to about $5. ($18) per gallon, while in Arizona, where Trump is scheduled to go to the Turning Point event next week, they are $4.72. (PLN 17) Additionally, gasoline prices typically increase during the summer months due to increased holiday travel by Americans and higher gasoline refining prices during this period.
— What they save on taxes they will lose by having to pay $1 to $2. (from PLN 3.6 to PLN 7.2) more for a gallon of gasoline, says Barrett Marson, a long-time strategist of the Republican Party in Arizona. — If you live in a car society like Arizona, you pay a lot. Two or three times a week you fill up your 15-gallon tank. Over the course of a month or two, this can really wipe out your tax savings.
Democrats go on the attack
Democrats across the country have taken advantage of higher gas prices, which before the war, they were one of the clearest economic indicators in Trump's favor. For example, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is running an online advertising campaign blaming Republicans for rising prices.
These ads are also displayed near gas stations in all 44 counties. Stickers with Trump's face and the words “It's on me” are also appearing at gas pumps across the country. This is a direct reference to stickers that Republicans once used against Democrats under Biden.
Republicans who were already skeptical about the direction of Trump's campaign say the war has only confirmed their doubts.
— His messages did not help Republican candidates. If you tell voters that you understand the situation – that you're working to fix it, that you have plans, and that's the truth, whether you're talking about Iran or the economy – they will give you some latitude in what solutions you propose. But he didn't do that, says Doug Heye, a longtime GOP strategist.
— What did he say in the State of the Union address? That we have never been richer or more popular. “Stand outside any grocery store and ask if people feel richer or more popular,” he adds. “The answer is no.”
