Drones will not win this war. Expert: NATO has no experience from a real war

The massive use of drones in the war with Russia gives Ukraine unprecedented experience, but drones will not win the war. The result will be determined by the ability to integrate various combat tools, says Dr. Jakub Olchowski from the Institute of Central Europe and Maria Curie-Skłodowska University in Lublin.

Olchowski reminds that Ukraine has been defending itself against Russia's aggression for over four years. Initially, it held off the Russian invasion with Western military and financial aid. Then determination and will to fight, as well as the mass use of drones, became crucial, which allowed, among others, effectively limit Russia's military advantage.

The Ukrainian army sets new standards on the battlefield

“On the one hand, Ukraine has developed an effective model and instruments of asymmetric confrontation with an enemy with greater potential, and on the other, it has become the largest and most important laboratory of unmanned technologies in the world. Importantly, they are tested and developed in real war conditions, which gives Ukraine unprecedented experience in this field” – emphasized Olchowski in a commentary published by the Institute of Central Europe.

The expert recalled that Ukraine was the first in the world to create a separate type of armed forces in February 2024 – the Unmanned Systems Force. They are responsible for planning and coordinating air, sea and ground drone operations. New solutions are introduced on an ongoing basis, tested in combat conditions, and artificial intelligence is also used. The scale and pace of these changes – as the expert emphasizes – changed the battlefield and the course of the war, including: virtually eliminating the Russian Black Sea Fleet from military operations and preventing the operations of armored-mechanized units.

Olchowski, citing media reports, writes that Ukrainian producers offer the army more than 150 types of FPV drones (including reconnaissance, bomber, “kamikaze” and interceptor drones)above 20 types of fiber optic unmanned aerial vehicles, over 30 types of land drones (sapper and logistics) and over 300 various types of electronic devices to combat unmanned systems.

This rapid adaptation of Ukrainian defense and its innovation was made possible by the developed Ukrainian high-technology sector. “Already before 2022 and the Russian invasion, this sector of the Ukrainian economy was developing dynamically: the export of IT services brought Ukraine 5 percent of GDP and 10 percent of income from the export of services. The number of IT specialists was estimated at approximately 300,000.” – Olchowski points out.

Expert warns against “dronosis”

However, in his opinion, even the most advanced technological solutions do not eliminate the importance of the classic components of military power. Opinions that attribute a key and dominant role to unmanned systems on the modern battlefield are – according to Olchowski – a far-reaching simplification and are rightly called “dronos”.

Olchowski emphasizes that although Ukraine has mastered unmanned systems perfectly, it is still trying to acquire planes, artillery and tanks.

Because drones cannot win the war, break the front line, control the airspace or replace infantry or artillery, he emphasized.

In his opinion, the outcome of the conflict is determined by the ability to integrate various combat tools, operational flexibility and real combat experience, which – as he emphasizes – should be particularly important for the NATO army.

The world's largest war laboratory

Olchowski emphasizes that Western countries do not have unmanned systems or systems to combat them comparable to those that enabled Ukraine to oppose the aggression of the militarily stronger Russia. However, in his opinion, the key challenge for NATO countries remains the lack of know-how, lack of real experience of warfare, and thus the ability to quickly adapt and create innovative solutions. – NATO armies are unfamiliar with the modern battlefield, not only in the context of unmanned systems, WRE, etc. – de facto, none of them has experience in a “real” war – Olchowski emphasized.

He added that some NATO countries, e.g. Great Britain, propose transferring training to Ukrainian territory and using Ukrainian experience, and Germany has decided that the Bundeswehr will be extensively trained by Ukrainian instructors.

According to Olchowski, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are currently one of the most experienced armies in the world in every dimension. “Taking into account the current conditions of the international security environment, it is necessary for the NATO army to use these experiences. This lesson has already been learned by, for example, Saudi Arabia and Qatar when they signed military cooperation agreements with Ukraine,” Olchowski added. (PAP)

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