The leading Brent oil contract for May reached a price range of $75.8-119.5 in March. per barrel. At the beginning of April, the June contract remained at around $100, which meant a drop of several percent compared to recent price peaks.
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According to bank analysts, geopolitical tensions remain a key factor affecting the oil market, including the war in the Middle East and supply disruptions resulting from the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and Russia's export restrictions.
The data shows that in March, oil production in OPEC countries decreased by about 7%. global supplyeven though the cartel decided to increase production by 206,000 from April. barrels per day. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil flowed daily, remains a key point in the global oil trade.
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Analysts predict that the average price of Brent crude oil in 2026 may be around $83. per barrel, although market scenarios remain diverse. In the short term, prices may remain high, but some forecasts assume a gradual easing of tensions and a reduction in raw material shortages in the second half of the year.
Industrial metals under pressure, gold in retreat
On the industrial metals market, March turned out to be a difficult month for copper. LME 3M benchmark quotations fell by 7.6%. month-on-month, which was the worst result since 2022. The declines resulted mainly from concerns about global economic growth and the strengthening of the dollar. Nevertheless, some analysts see growth potential due to the supply deficit.
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Unlike copper, aluminum prices increased by over 10%. on a monthly basis. This growth has been fueled by supply constraints and high energy costs, which impact production of the metal.
In turn, the gold market recorded its weakest month since 2008 in March. Bullion prices fell by 12%. However, at the end of the month there was a rebound, supported by the weakening of the dollar and signals of de-escalation of conflicts. Experts predict that in the medium term, gold may again gain importance as a safe haven in times of geopolitical and inflation uncertainty.
According to forecasts, gold prices may rise to $5,400. per troy ounce before the end of the year, which would be the result of increased investment demand, purchases of the precious metal by central banks and potential interest rate cuts by the Fed. However, in the event of a prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and a correction in the stock markets, the gold price may drop to $3,800. per t. oz.
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In the scenario of intensifying concerns about the fiscal stability of Western economies and further geopolitical shocks, the quotations may increase even to the range of USD 5,700-6,100. per t. oz.
