The conflict between the United States and Iran is intensifying. Meanwhile, it is becoming clear that for the US president the military operation in Iran is developing differently than planned.
Panetta is convinced that the US and its ally in this operation, Israel, “have seriously miscalculated.” — They believed that the first strikes would lead to the fall of the regime. The opposite happened, he notes in an interview with the Bild daily. He emphasizes that the mullah system survived the bombings, and Donald Trump is now “desperately looking for a way out of this situation” to end the war while saving face.
At the same time – as the former head of the CIA notes – the regime, by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, managed to “take the entire world economy hostage” According to Panetta, this is a huge problem for Trump. As long as the strait is blocked, there is no “way out of the war.” The American politician hopes that the Iranians will open this key oil transport route themselves, because “they know where the mines are.”
Panetta also criticizes what Trump's leadership style appears to be “less strategy, more improvisation”. The lack of a clearly defined war goal now turns out to be a shot in the arm. Since the attempt to change the regime through a “decisive blow” against Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei failed, no one knows exactly “what this war is actually about.” “It's strategically extremely dangerous,” warns the former defense secretary.
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, December 29, 2025.Jim Watson/AFP / AFP
For Trump, the military adventure in the Middle East has turned toxic. “Support is waning — and Trump feels it,” Panetta explains. “An agreement may be his only way out,” he adds. Even without a real victory. The problem is that the regime in Tehran could ultimately emerge from this even more strengthened. “Survival will become propaganda and the new basis of power,” he says. In his opinion, the United States and Israel ignored the iron rule of war policy: “You can't bring about regime change with bombs – it's an illusion.”
“Image of weakness” of the USA
At least Panetta sees something positive in Trump's conflict with Europe. “It took some time, but I think the US president is starting to understand why alliances are important,” he says. In his opinion, independent US actions lead to a dead end.
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The former CIA chief draws particular attention to the role of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. – He touched on the weak points of this war in a very direct way and explained that it was not his war or Europe's war – he notes. In the first days of the conflict, the German Chancellor supported Washington's operation in the Middle East. However, in the following days he made a sharp U-turn and publicly expressed concerns that Trump did not have a strategy for exiting the conflict in the Persian Gulf. Such doubts were expressed by, among others, during a speech in the Bundestag.
According to Panetta, honesty is not a bad starting point for conversations. — The transatlantic axis may even become stronger because Merz showed some backbone – claims.
The former head of the CIA believes that the indirect winners of the war in the Middle East may ultimately turn out to be Moscow and Beijing. He points out that what both countries can currently observe in connection with US actions in the Middle East is “despite all the harsh words, rather an image of weakness.”
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
