From the macroeconomic point of view, rising unemployment in Poland is a difficult stage for employees, but a logical one for the economy. Company boards block recruitment budgets and eliminate the least productive vacancies. However, the next warmer months should be slightly more conducive to better statistics.
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The unemployment rate in Poland in February 2026 was 6.1%. – the Central Statistical Office reported on Tuesday. This means a deterioration of the situation on the labor market, because a month earlier the indicator was at 6%. This extends the period of unemployment growth, which was 5% in May 2025. Unemployment has not been as high as it is now for years, specifically since September 2021.
What does this look like in absolute numbers? There were 954.9 thousand registered in labor offices. unemployed, i.e. by 20.8 thousand more than in January.
Unemployment in Poland is seasonal. Economists comment on the new Central Statistical Office data
BOŚ Bank economists point to the cyclical nature of unemployment. According to their estimates the unemployment rate after excluding seasonal effects was 5.8 percent, increasing from 5.7 percent. where it has remained since September last year.
“The analysis of data on labor market flows does not indicate a significant deterioration of the cyclical situation. Although the number of newly registered unemployed persons increased slightly in February, it still remained significantly below the levels from January to October 2025 (it decreased in the period November to January),” we read in the BOŚ report.
Economists estimate that at the beginning of the year the domestic labor market remained generally balanced, with enterprises still very cautious about increasing employment (especially given the average level of production capacity utilization), and at the same time with no clear signals of willingness to reduce jobs.
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“In the medium term, for the scenario of maintaining this situation, the key factor will be the stabilization of the situation in the Middle East and its limited impact on the real economy. With this assumption, the unemployment rate in the coming months will be Seasonal factors will be more important and should reduce its level from March (according to the preliminary forecast to the level of 6%). In the summer months, the unemployment rate may drop to approximately 5.5 percent, and then at the end of the year it will return to approximately 5.7 – 5.8 percent,” BOŚ experts forecast.
We should not underestimate unemployment in Poland
“February's labor market data send signals that we should not underestimate” – Mariusz Zielonka, chief economist of the Lewiatan Confederation, comments on the new data from the Central Statistical Office.
He points out that although the survey data from the Labor Force Survey, i.e. non-administrative data, do not give any signals of such a deterioration, the labor market is beginning to feel the effects of geopolitical turmoil and the rapid adjustment process of the Polish economy.
“Industrycollided with geopolitical logistics shocks and prolonged shortness of demand in the West, has entered a mode of deep stagnation. Company boards block recruitment budgets and eliminate the least productive vacancies. Wherever possible, business is starting to automate production processes and at the same time trying to meet wage expectations without the need for growing profitability,” Mariusz Zielonka diagnoses the situation.
The economist admits that from the point of view of macroeconomics This is a difficult stage for employees, but a logical one for the economy. In his opinion, the disruptions and stagnation in the world force companies to abandon the model based on contributing hands to work in favor of a real increase in productivity.
“The Polish economy quite suddenly began its march towards a more mature architecture based on optimization and productivity growth. In the short term, the costs of this change will unfortunately be borne primarily by those looking for work,” warns the Lewiatan economist.
