“In July 2025, CPI inflation in Poland decreased below the upper limit of deviations from the inflation target of the NBP. The formation of inflation in the following quarters will largely depend on the dynamics of administered energy prices, especially in the face of the slowly expected reduction of base inflation. Available forecasts indicate that in 2026 the average annual dynamics of consumer prices, including base inflation, will be lower than in 2025.” – we read in the NBP document.
We would like to remind you that in August CPI inflation in Poland fell to 2.9 percent. year on year with 3.1 percent noted in July. The NBP goal is 2.5 percent. with a tolerated range of deviations +/- 1 percentage point
In the July projection of the NBP economists, it was expected that in all of 2025 inflation would be on average 3.9 percent, and in 2026 it was to drop to 3.1 percent. and 2.4 percent In 2027, the latest forecasts of economists of banks and other institutions, collected by the NBP, indicate that inflation in 2025 will be slightly lower than in its own forecast was assumed by the central bank and will amount to 3.7 percent. In the years 2026 and 2027 it is expected to reach 2.9 percent, respectively. and 2.7 percent
The central bank said that, according to forecasts, GDP growth in the second half of 2025 will remain at the level similar to the first half of 2025. Next year, economic activity – according to the NBP, “may slow down a bit”, although both in this and next year GDP growth “will be supported by growing investments.”
“A favorable situation on the labor market will be favorable for consumption, including a low unemployment rate, with the expected gradual decrease in salary dynamics. At the same time, the factor affecting the economic growth rate will be the development of the economic situation abroad, including in Germany” – assessed the central bank.
See also: NBP Vice President about the situation in Poland. “We are dealing with hamstering work”
According to the NBP, the economic situation in Germany will be a risk factor for this scenario. In addition, the global situation in terms of the trade policy of the largest economies is uncertain.
“There is also uncertainty related to the geopolitical situation, and above all to the further course of Russian armed aggression against Ukraine. A significant factor of uncertainty for inflation in Poland is the formation of administrated prices, in particular the level of new tariffs for electricity, gas and heat.
He added that an important factor of uncertainty for the future economic situation and inflation is the shape of fiscal policy in 2026.
