Zelensky in Bucharest. Why we risk being excluded from the reconstruction of Ukraine: “Romania is unable to use the opportunities”

Volodimir Zelenski meets on Thursday, in Bucharest, with President Nicușor Dan and Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan. Political scientist Marius Ghincea, from ETH Zurich University, talks about what Romania has done and can still do for Ukraine and warns that we risk losing the chance to contribute and benefit from the reconstruction of this country, although Zelenski supports us.

Volodymyr Zelensky and Prime Minister Bolojan also met in London. PHOTO: Presidency.ro

The President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, is coming to Bucharest on Thursday, March 12. The Ukrainian head of state will meet with both President Nicușor Dan and Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan.

According to the Romanian Presidential Administration, the discussion agenda will include topics aimed at strengthening the bilateral relationship between the two states, in a “comprehensive, constructive and future-oriented” direction. Also officially, during the meeting, the two leaders will discuss the development of political dialogue and the intensification of economic cooperation, as well as collaboration in areas such as energy and defense industries. Also, topics related to the development of connectivity and cross-border initiatives, as well as the role of Romania in the process of reconstruction of Ukraine, will be addressed.

At the same time, Nicușor Dan and Volodimir Zelenski will have an exchange of views on topical issues, including the European Union enlargement process, the transatlantic relationship, the security situation in the Black Sea region and recent developments at the regional and global level.

It is known, however, that other topics are usually addressed in such meetings. Therefore, it is expected that in the discussions with Zelenski, the important support that Romania has given will also be addressed and it will be decided what the help given to Kiev could be in the future.

Some problems still persist

For the time being, the Romanian authorities have avoided making public the information related to this aid, fueling speculation and providing “ammunition” to those contesting the decision to help Kiev.

Political scientist Marius Ghincea, researcher at ETH Zurich University, is an expert in security policies and public policies. He explains made for Ukrainians, but what else we could do we will find out from the experts.

“The visit of President Zelensky, which will be practically the second of the Ukrainian leader to Romania since the beginning of the war, I think will have three main objectives. The first will obviously be related to the war effort, the allied and European contribution to the war effort and the negotiations that the Americans are trying to mediate, without much success. And from here this would probably be the most important and the first point of discussion. In the second point of discussion, it will most likely be related to relations between Ukraine and the European Union. In particular, the enlargement process, where Ukraine is obviously blocked at the moment due to the opposition of Slovakia and Hungary.”
says Ghincea.

Most likely, the two heads of state will also discuss the situation of the Romanian minority in Ukraine. Some problems still persist there, although many others have been resolved in recent years.

“Romania has positioned itself quite favorably towards the expansion to Ukraine and to Moldova, and this will probably be one of the topics covered in the discussion with President Nicușor Dan. A third topic, most likely, will be related to bilateral issues, related to the rights of the Romanian and Romanian-speaking minorities in Ukraine, issues related to purchases of industrial and military material from Romania and aspects of the transit of various Ukrainian exports to Romanian ports”, he says.

Regarding the aid granted by Romania to Ukraine, Marius Ghincea reminds that everything is secreted by CSAT. Because of this, it is not known to what extent Romania offered consistent help to its neighbors in the North. However, it is obvious that Romania helped Ukraine by providing its railway, road and port infrastructure, but also by granting a series of facilities.

“The truth is that we do not know the aid that Romania offers to Ukraine. We do not know because it is still secret. There are decisions of the CSAT that secret this military aid in particular. We know that we delivered ammunition and military equipment produced by the Romanian military industry for a fee. In fact, we have not sold so much through the Romanian defense industry in the last 4 years, compared to the previous 30”adds the expert.

Bad strategic communication

In his opinion, CSAT is wrong with this attitude and is only feeding the discourse of those who oppose the aid given to Ukraine. At the same time, through this secrecy, the Romanian authorities fuel conspiracy theories.

“My position is that it is a mistake to keep military aid secret, because that allows all the conspiracy theories about what Romania is doing and what Romania is not doing for and in relation to Ukraine. And it prevents the authorities from justifying and explaining what we are doing, why we are doing it and for what purpose. The strategic communication of the Romanian state has been, in general, extremely bad. And this secrecy of the aid only adds fuel to the fire.”
claims Ghincea.

Regarding the increase in aid for our neighbors in the North, Marius Ghincea is of the opinion that Romania does not have this intention. The financial crisis and the austerity policy promoted by the Bologna Government are the main reasons.

“Considering that we do not know exactly what we have helped with so far, it is difficult to estimate what we could still help with. I am skeptical that the Romanian state has any very strong interest at this moment in increasing the level of aid to Ukraine, especially in conditions of austerity and in conditions where we have governing parties that are quite skeptical of Ukraine“, he says.

Conflicts between priests

The good news would be that Romanian-Ukrainian bilateral relations are much better than a few years ago. The two states have common interests, especially with regard to Russia. However, there is room for improvement, and certain tensions still persist in the bilateral relationship.

“Our relations are much better than before the war, because there is a common interest to keep the Russians as far as possible from our borders. There is a great, strategic convergence here, both at the European level and at the bilateral level. A number of problems related to the Romanian minorities in Ukraine have also been solved. We have a recognition of the Romanian language, an elimination of the recognition of the Moldovan language. We have a solution of some historical problems with the Romanian community. But there are still some problems related to the Romanian churches. Especially because the Romanian churches in North Bucovina, for example, are affiliated with the Russian Orthodox Church. There have been several conflicts between the priests of the Romanian churches and the Ukrainian authorities.” explained Ghincea.

These problems will most likely be addressed at the meeting on Thursday, March 12, between the two heads of state, Marius Ghincea believes.

We risk kicking a new chance

Also, Nicușor Dan and Volodimir Zelenski should also discuss the future of relations between the two states, but also Romania's involvement in the reconstruction of Ukraine.

“For the reconstruction of Ukraine, Romania will certainly play a role for the simple fact that geography dictates it. You don't have many routes through which you can reach post-war Ukraine. You will have Romania, especially if we finish the Moldavian Highway. You will have Poland, which will be the main beneficiary because it has contributed the most. But Romania will benefit, more as a logistics hub, although it is hard to say what the benefits will be in the end. It all depends on how well will move Romanian companies and the Romanian state to promote the economic interests of Romanian companies, but that Romanian companies and the state are not able to take advantage of these opportunities. In general, the Romanian state is unable to make full use of the opportunities it has. We think about how much money we will probably lose SAFE. So we have no reason to believe that the Romanian state will perform better this time”, concludes Marius Ghincea.

Aid granted to Ukraine, “top secret”

The Romanian authorities continue to avoid giving details about the aid granted to Ukraine. Regarding military support, it is known that Romania donated a Patriot system to Ukraine, a fact that was made public. However, no other details are known.

Instead, the Ukrainians were much more open and provided enough information to draw a picture. In an analysis for “Adevărul”, General (r) Virgil Bălăceanu, the man who represented Romania at the NATO headquarters in Brussels, independently confirmed to a large extent the information published by the Ukrainian press.

“There is no way for Romania's support, from a military point of view, to be in full correspondence with what we were able to deliver and what was accepted by the Ukrainians. We can talk about classic ammunition for the 152 howitzers, we can talk about reactive strikes, 122 caliber reactive projectiles for the 40 reactive projectile launcher installations, APRA 40. They were in the equipment of the Romanian Army, they were removed from the equipment because they were replaced by the modernized installations and the new operative-tactical HIMARS installations. We can talk about other types of ammunition, from infantry ammunition, because the calibers are close between the caliber of the Romanian armament and the caliber of the Ukrainian armament. We can talk about ammunition for launchers, including AG-7 launchers.” said General Bălăceanu.

“We can possibly add armored amphibious transporters from the cold stock, from what Romania had kept, because no transporters were given, if they were given, from the operational stock, from the equipment of the units. And these armored transporters are old transporters, which must be replaced, now in development, being the Piranha V program“, adds General Virgil Bălăceanu.

The Ukrainians made everything public

If the Romanian authorities made the aid granted to Ukraine a state secret, the communicators of the Romanian state showed double amateurism and did not foresee that the information that Romania keeps secret, or at least part of it, is presented in the Ukrainian press. According to defenseromania.ro, there is an interesting video report made recently by the Ukrainian television station Army TV, which provides a clear understanding of how the Romanian APR-40 systems behave in reality on the front.

For their part, the Ukrainians at DefenseExpress claim that the Romanian MLRS APR-40 systems would have been supplied starting from May 2023. And as if that were not enough, another Ukrainian source, oryxspioenkop.com, claims that Romania would have offered Kiev multiple rocket launchers (ArPR-40), 122 mm, but also TAB-71 MS armored personnel carriers, 152 mm towed howitzers, but and 12.7 mm heavy machine guns, DshKM.

Along with the armament, Romania would have provided a very large amount of ammunition, such as 122 mm rockets, 152 mm artillery shells, ammunition for the AG-7 and AG-9 grenade launchers, bombs for the 82 and 120 mm launchers, as well as ammunition for the heavy infantry weapons, 12.7 mm, or for the 7.62 mm caliber machine gun, informs the source Ukrainian, quoted by the Defense Monitor.

Even more importantly, Kyiv Post has written since the first days of the war that the support offered to Ukraine by Romania, by the authorities but also by Romanian citizens, deserves greater recognition. Journalists from Kiev claim that Romania helped Ukraine in all possible ways. Romania is one of the main transit countries for the delivery of armaments and military equipment from the United States and Western Europe, but it also delivered military equipment.