In their Friday commentary, experts pointed out that the conflict in the Middle East and the closing of the Strait of Hormuz quickly translated into the price situation on the fuel market in Poland. Refinery price lists show sudden increases, which are transferred to gas stations from day to day.
“Diesel oil has increased in price by a shocking PLN 1,373.20 since last Friday and a cubic meter of this fuel is valued by producers today on average at PLN 6,150.20. This is its highest price since January 2023. The average price of 95-octane gasoline has increased by PLN 536.20 over the week and its current price is PLN 5,008.20/cubic meter. The last time wholesale gasoline was this expensive was in July 2024. – analysts emphasized.
Experts pointed out that despite the “price shock” also affecting the retail part of the fuel market, “mass panic among drivers, which would be a serious challenge to the entire logistics system,” was avoided.
“In mid-week, according to e-petrol.pl, the average price of 95-octane gasoline, after an increase of 25 cents, was PLN 5.99/l. Diesel oil went up in price by as much as 41 cents to PLN 6.40/l. A liter of autogas cost eight cents more and those who filled up the tank paid PLN 2.85 for it. Before the weekend, however, prices at many stations were much higher – for Drivers paid more than PLN 6 for a liter of gasoline, and the price of diesel exceeded PLN 7,” it was reported.
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Experts have no doubts. Drivers in Poland will face an increase in fuel prices
e-petrol.pl predicts that the coming week will bring further increases at stations. According to estimates, a liter of 95-octane gasoline may cost PLN 6.15-6.30; 98-octane gasoline PLN 6.96-7.10; diesel fuel PLN 7.12-7.29, and autogas PLN 2.97-3.10.
Analysts emphasized that the past week remains “one of the most shocking weeks for the oil market since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.” During this period, Brent crude oil prices increased by 16.4% and WTI by 19.2%.
The escalation of the conflict between the United States and Israel and Iran is responsible for such increases, which led to the virtual suspension of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Experts remind that this route is responsible for transporting approximately one fifth of the global oil supply.
As noted in the comment, some producers try to avoid the most endangered routes. “Saudi Aramco plans to redirect part of its exports to the Red Sea through the terminal in Yanbu, using the East-West pipeline with a capacity of up to 7 million barrels per day. This solution allows to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, although with Saudi Arabia's production exceeding 10 million barrels per day, the transmission capacity may prove to be insufficient if the blockage lasts longer,” it said.
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Increase in fuel prices. This is the result of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East
Analysts added that in addition, there are actions aimed at easing tensions on the supply side. “The US administration has granted the first exemptions enabling the purchase of Russian oil subject to sanctions stored on tankers. This possibility has been used, among others, by Indian refineries, which buy millions of barrels of raw material stored in floating storage facilities. According to Kpler data, there are approximately 30 million barrels of Russian oil available for sale in the waters of the Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Singapore Strait,” it explained.
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Experts added that despite the sharp increase in prices, American producers of shale oil are not significantly increasing production for now. Companies treat the current price spike as potentially short-lived and assume that tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could subside within a few weeks. However, it was noted that some investment banks warn that a prolonged blockade of a key transport route may result in an increase in oil prices above USD 100. per barrel.
They pointed out that in the short term the market remains strongly dependent on the development of the situation in the Persian Gulf region, and any signals of unblocking the Strait of Hormuz could quickly “cool” the quotations. However, a continuing blockade or further escalation of the conflict will increase the risk of a further increase in the geopolitical premium in oil prices, analysts emphasize.
