Retail sales of goods (both consumer and non-consumer) are a key indicator of internal demand, which is the main driving force of Polish GDP, reflecting the real purchasing power and financial mood of Poles. Monitoring these statistics allows economists and decision-makers to assess the current condition of the economic situation and predict upcoming changes in the country's growth dynamics.
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Retail sales are growing faster than forecast
Retail sales in January 2026 compared to December 2025 decreased nominally by 17.8%, but increased by 3.9% on an annual basis. – according to Monday's publication of the Central Statistical Office.
This means a slowdown in the annual growth rate of retail sales, which was 5% in last month's report. in the positive.
We also know what the consumption dynamics looks like after eliminating the impact of price increases. It's similar. At constant prices, retail sales increased by 4.4% in a year, and in the corresponding report a month ago it was plus by 5.3%.
How do these results compare to economists' forecasts? There's a big surprise. Experts underestimated consumers. The average prediction suggested a slowdown in retail sales growth to 2.6%. in the case of nominal sales and 3.1 percent. for sale at fixed prices.
Consumption is one of the most important drivers of Poland's economic growth in recent years. It allows for increasing purchases, among others. rapid increase in earnings. In January, the average salary in medium-sized and large companies was 6.1 percent higher. higher than a year earlier. It amounted to PLN 9,002 gross.
Retail. Why did Poles' spending increase?
In January 2026, retail sales (at constant prices) compared to the same period in 2025 increased significantly in the groups: “textiles, clothing, footwear” (by 17.6%), “furniture, electronics, household appliances” (by 10.5%), “pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, orthopedic equipment” (by 9.6%) and “press, books, other sales in specialized stores” (by 8.1%).
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Central Statistical Office, own study
In the group with the highest share in “total” retail sales – “food, beverages and tobacco products” – an increase in sales by 4.2 percent was observed. Among the groups presented, a decrease in sales was recorded in the group “motor vehicles, motorcycles, parts” (by 4.5 percent). In January 2026, the value of online retail sales at current prices was 10.9%. higher than a year ago, and the share of online sales in “total” sales increased from 9.1%. to 9.7 percent. Among the presented groups with a significant share of sales via the Internet, an increase in share was reported by enterprises from the groups “furniture, electronics, household appliances” (from 18.1 percent a year ago to 19.3 percent) and “press, books, other sales in specialized stores” (from 19.9 percent to 20.7 percent, respectively). However, units from the “textiles, clothing, footwear” group showed a decrease in share (from 29.0% to 26.3%).
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