“Shot in the foot” or Robert Fico's cold calculation? The ultimatum towards Ukraine opens a new stage of the energy conflict
On Saturday, February 21, Fico wrote on Facebook that Slovak-Ukrainian relations cannot function as a “one-way ticket beneficial only to Ukraine.” If Ukraine does not restore oil supplies to Slovakia by Monday, the Prime Minister announces interference in energy aid, on which the war-torn neighbor is now largely dependent.
“On the same day, I will ask the state-owned company SEPS to suspend emergency electricity supplies to Ukraine,” Fico warned.
According to him, it was necessary to deliver it to Ukraine already in January 2026 twice the amount of emergency electricity than throughout 2025 to stabilize the local energy system.
In his entry, the Prime Minister argued that since the beginning of the war, Slovakia has been helping Ukraine more than some other countries. He recalled the humanitarian support, joint meetings of governments and the fact that approximately 180,000 people found shelter in Slovakia. Ukrainian refugees.
Fico considered the suspension of the transit of strategic raw materials to be an action aimed directly at his country.
“The Ukrainian president does not want to understand our peaceful approach and because we do not support the war, he is behaving maliciously towards Slovakia,” wrote the head of government.
Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert FicoSergii Kharchenko/NurPhoto via Getty Images/contributor/Getty Images
The government declares a state of emergency
Since the end of January, oil has stopped reaching Slovakia and Hungary. The reason is said to be damage to the Druzhba pipeline in Ukraine. In response, the government decided to take a radical step and activated state strategic reserves.
The Slovak refinery Slovnaft will be able to draw PLN 250,000 from state reserves. tons of oil, which should ensure continuous operation of the plant for at least a month. However, this is not non-repayable aid — the company will have to return the same amount of raw material to the state and pay interest for its use.
The state of emergency has been in force since Thursday, February 19 and may last until September 30 this year.
There is no reason to panic
Slovnaft's CEO, Gabriel Szabo, who replaced the company's long-time head, Oshkar Vilagi, in December last year, is trying to reassure public opinion. As he emphasized, the company has its own oil reserves for about a week, after which it will smoothly switch to raw material from state reserves.
Slovnaft logo visible at a gas station in Krupin, Slovakia (illustrative photo)NurPhoto / Contributor / Getty Images
Prime Minister Fico also sees no reason for concern. After a meeting with the refinery's management, he assured that the interruption in supplies should not affect the prices of gasoline and diesel oil for drivers.
While Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha announced that the damage to the pipeline was the result of a Russian attack, both Fico and the head of Slovnaft they cast doubt on this version.
We have been informed in the past about the reasons for supply interruptions. To this day, we do not know what actually prevented the “Friendship” pipeline from working
said Szabo.
Fico, however, stated that there was no clear culprit in the situation.
— Ukraine points to the Russian Federation, Russia points to Ukraine, said the Prime Minister. He also added that according to Slovak intelligence information, the damaged section had already been repaired and oil could continue to flow through it to Slovakia without any obstacles.
According to the Ukrainska Pravda website, Kiev has proposed alternative routes for transporting Russian oil to Slovakia and Hungary, primarily the Odessa-Brody pipeline. [łączący Morze Czarne z rurociągiem naftowym “Przyjaźń”]. The proposal was submitted to the European Union on Friday.
Dispute over a loan to Ukraine
His declaration was made a day after a similar position announced by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Both politicians accuse Ukraine of “political blackmail”.
“If Ukraine blocks the Druzhba pipeline, Hungary will block the war loan to Ukraine. We will not allow ourselves to be blackmailed,” Orban wrote on social media.
“He shot himself in the foot”
According to former Secretary of State in the Ministry of Economy, Karol Galek the prime minister's actions are illogical and may harm Slovak economic interests.
Galek described the situation as a “logical absurdity reminiscent of Catch-22.” He pointed out that stable electricity supplies are necessary to repair the damaged “Przyjaźń” pipeline.
According to Galek, Slovakia is only responsible for approx. 20 percent import of electricity to Ukraine. If supplies were interrupted, other countries in the region could immediately take over this role.
Poland, Romania, Moldova and Hungary can fill the gap by increasing energy flows and capturing the related revenues. Even Viktor Orban does not plan to interrupt electricity supplies
– he explained.
In his opinion, such a move would primarily hit the Slovak economy and would be a classic “shooting yourself in the foot“.
Profitable “stand-by” mode for the selected few
Galek also drew attention to the DG-energy company based in Bratislava, which, according to him, is linked to the Slovak oligarch Jozef Brhel. Part of the so-called emergency energy is to be produced by its backup diesel generators.
According to the former deputy minister, these devices are financially more profitable in standby mode than during real operation on expensive fuel.
This would mean that if the flow of energy through Slovakia were stopped, the state and ordinary energy producers would lose income and tax revenues, while the selected company could benefit.
— Only Jozef Brhel's diesel generators would again earn money in standby mode, Galek concluded.
