Historic result. Polish exports are higher than Russian exports for the first time

In 2025, Poland recorded its first foreign trade deficit in two years, amounting to EUR 7.7 billion – according to analyzes of the Polish Economic Institute. Exports increased by almost 4%, but imports increased by over 6%. among others due to growing supplies from China.

The value of exports increased by almost 4%, which is a rebound after the decline in 2024 related to the slowdown on global markets. Imports increased by over 6%, which was supported by the recovery of the domestic economy and growing supplies from developing countries. Declines in both imports and exports were recorded only in relations with Central and Eastern Europe.

Despite the tariff increases introduced by the US in 2025, the value of Polish exports to the United States in euro decreased by only 0.1%. The small change was largely the result of stockpiling in the first half of the year – by June, exports to the US increased by 30%. The US share in Polish exports decreased by 0.1 percentage point. A slightly stronger decline in share concerned Germany (by 0.3 percentage points), although the value of exports to this country increased by less than 3%. Germany's share in Polish exports has fallen below 27 percent, but the country remains Poland's most important trading partner.

PIE pointed out that in 2025, Polish exports exceeded Russian exports for the first time in history. After eleven months of the year, the value of Poland's foreign sales was USD 2 billion higher. higher than Russian exports, calculated on the basis of mirror data on imports from Russia.

However, a dynamic acceleration of exports is unlikely in the near future, analysts said. Growth in the EU – a key sales market – remains moderate, and additional risks include persistent trade barriers, US protectionism, the war in Ukraine and growing competition from China.

The biggest changes were visible in imports from China. The share of the Middle Kingdom in Polish imports increased from 14.5%. up to 15.5%, with an increase in the value of supplies by over 13%. rdr. The strongest growth was observed in purchases of mechanical machinery, cars, games and toys; cars alone accounted for approximately 10 percent. import growth.

The situation of Germany also stands out against the background of changes in international trade. The country's exports to China are falling for the second year in a row and in the first eleven months of 2025 they were 14%. lower than the year before. Sales to the USA decreased by almost 10 percent, although the United States remained the most important sales market. In this context, the importance of Poland as a recipient of German goods increased by 6.5%. y/y, which strengthened its position as Germany's fourth trading partner, with a share of 6.4 percent (PAP)

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