After years of disturbing reports of a falling number of births in the world, a light in the tunnel appeared. According to preliminary data of the American Disease Control and Prevention Center (CDC), in 2024 the birth rate in the US slightly increased.
We owe this 1 % increase primarily to women at the beginning of the fourth decade of lifewhich gave birth by 2 percent More children than a year ago. Also women aged 30–39 and just before thirty recorded a slight increase in the number of births.
“These data is a continuation of the trend observed for three decades,” says Brady Hamilton, the main author of the report in an interview with Business Insider.
Women ending the second decade of their lives and in their thirties give birth to more children, while among teenagers and people just after twenties the number of births decreases. – These numbers confirm that women are choosing children later – he adds.
Millennials in the lead, but they don't beat records
Although millennials have fewer children than previous generations, they still overtake the generation of Z.
CDC data shows that in 2024 women aged 30-34 gave birth to the most children. Just behind them are mothers just before thirty, i.e. the oldest representatives of the Z generation.
Emily Oster, the founder of the Parentdata.org portal, the best -selling author and professor of economics at the Browna University, in an interview with Business Insider points to two clear trends.
The first is a conscious delay in the child's decision – although biologically the greatest fertility falls in the early twenties, since the 1990s, women of this age have been giving birth to fewer and fewer children.
At the same time, the development of medicine gives more control over the moment when someone decides to do the child, or gives up this decision at all.
The decrease in the number of births among teenagers continues. Compared to 2023, a 3 % congress was reported. The better availability of contraceptives helped this. In turn, the development of the in vitro procedure allows you to get pregnant even in forty.
Young people need more time to feel ready for a child
Not everyone feels ready for children before thirty, let alone before forty.
“People just need more time to get to the moment in their lives where they think they want to have children,” says Sarah Hayford, professor of sociology and director of the Institute of Population Research at the Ohio State University.
Both millennials and representatives of the Z generation need more time to achieve the financial stability needed to start a family, compared to earlier generations.
Some learn longer to get a better paid job and be able to afford a dream home.
– We observe that people delay the decision about the child, and then at some point try to “make up” earlier years – he adds.
Trump wants more American children
Despite the increase in the number of births, the administration of Donald Trump conducts a campaign to increase the fertility rate, From special classes to payments 5,000 hole. (approx. PLN 19,000) for parents after the birth of a child.
Many Americans would like to have more children. The problem is how to make them really decide.
Hayford reminds that other wealthy countries – like Japan or South Korea – also introduced various programs to increase the number of births. Among them were four -day work weeks or bonuses for men who decide to reverse vasectomy.
– None of these ideas turned out to be particularly effective – he notes. The bonuses for the birth of a child can have some influence, but – as he says – “they must be really large”, and their impact on demography is rather symbolic. 5,000 proposed by Trump hole. It will not even cover the average cost of childbirth in the USA, which before taking into account the insurance is about 13 thousand. hole. (approx. PLN 48,000 900).
Other solutions, often indicated by parents, such as reduction of childcare costs or extending parental leave, also do not guarantee success. Even Scandinavian countries that offer much better support than the US are struggling with a decrease in the number of births.
-I do not think that we have a clear answer to the question, what would make the 26-year-olds want three children-says Oster. “I'm not sure if anyone knows the answer,” he sums up.
The article is a translation with American Business Insider edition.
