“Sell America, buy everything else.” WIG with a new record and the highest turnover this year
The beginning of February on the Warsaw Stock Exchange is currently dictated by buyers. While WIG and mWIG40 celebrated historic records, blue chips from WIG20 continued to rebound from a multi-day low after Monday's low opening. Kamil Cisowski from Opoka TFI suggests that the WSE is a beneficiary of the greater attractiveness of emerging markets. Invariably, the market's main attention is focused on the same investment topics, such as KGHM, JSW, CD Projekt and the broadly understood banking sector, which is breaking its records.
Tuesday's session brought a continuation of the buyers' advantage that occurred after Monday's very low opening on the WSE, which meant a depreciation of almost 3% on WIG20. Already on Monday, WIG20 made up for all the losses and ended the session with a slight gain, and on Tuesday it simply continued this rally, growing by 2.29%. – the strongest in Europe – and ending the session at daily maximums, only 14 points or less than 0.5 percent. since the record bull market at the end of January.
On Tuesday, WIG was the highest in history (127,479.98 points) and at closing prices, after an increase of 1.91%. The all-time record is also held by mWIG40 (1.09%), which, after breaking 9,000 points on Monday, takes it to 9,168.53 points. sWIG80 was slightly behind, gaining 0.67 percent, but it is still a fraction of the peak.
The turnover on the WSE on Tuesday was record-breaking this year, amounting to PLN 4.03 billion on the broad market, of which PLN 3.46 billion concerned WIG20 companies, including primarily KGHM (PLN 767 million), PKO (PLN 593.3 million) and Orlen (PLN 458 million). PLN 200 million was also exceeded on Pekao and CD Projekt. According to calculations by Bankier.pl, these were the seventh largest turnover of the broad market in the entire history of the WSE.
Global capital is flowing to emerging markets
According to the managers, the Polish stock exchange has become one of the main beneficiaries of the change in the strategy of global funds. After months of Wall Street domination, investors began to shift capital towards emerging markets. “It seems that after the perturbations related to concerns about Iran, the change of the Fed president, and President Trump's new ideas, we are going to have a good February. Poland has looked very good since the beginning of the year, but emerging markets in general look very good and we are the beneficiary of that,” Kamil Cisowski, manager at Opoka TFI, told PAP Biznes.
“Looking at the data on inflows, we can see that in recent weeks at the global level we have had a +sell America, buy everything else+ strategy and it was the emerging markets that benefited the most. We believe that this trend may slow down a bit due to the ongoing earnings season in the United States, which looks good. We will, of course, see how the rest of the results of these key technology companies will turn out,” he added.
KGHM with a spectacular rebound on the WSE
The first violin at the session again belonged to KGHM, whose shares increased by 8.9%, reaching the price of PLN 340. On Monday, you could buy the Kagiehu stock for less than PLN 281. The rebound from this level is already 21.18%. This, in turn, is a huge recovery after the last two days, when the price of the copper giant plummeted following the crash on the silver market. Tuesday's optimism was supported by the return of increases in copper prices (3.7%) and the spectacular rebound of silver (12.7%).
There was also information about a loan for KGHM from BGK in the amount of PLN 209 million. The funds from the National Reconstruction Plan (KPO) will be allocated to the construction of four photovoltaic farms with a total capacity of 94 MW, which is part of the giant's energy transformation strategy.
Banks on fire, gaming in Google's shadow
The financial sector performed equally impressively. The WIG-Banki index increased by 4%. to the level of 21,532.62 points and a new industry benchmark record. The demand was fueled by, among others, new “buy” recommendations from Wood & Company for ING (4.31%) and Santander (5.09%). The growth leader in this group was Alior Bank (7.37%), which announced plans to sell the office building at ul. Towarowa. Pekao (4.79%) and PKO (3.21%) also recorded solid increases, with, as mentioned, high turnover.
The Monetary Policy Council will decide on rates on Wednesday. Although the market does not expect a cut in February, the target rate level is expected to be lower in 2026. Banks, according to the consensus results for 2026 analyzed by Bankier.pl, are expected to experience the greatest erosion of results, hence the sector's strong attitude may be surprising. However, the inflow of foreign capital to emerging markets, including Poland, usually takes place through the most liquid companies, which certainly include banking companies, and this somehow explains their excellent performance since the beginning of the year.
The mood was completely different in the gaming sector. CD Projekt lost 3.47%, continuing the disastrous streak that started on Friday (then the decline was 8%). It seems that investors still don't know how to evaluate the presentation of the Google Project Genie prototype – an AI application for generating virtual worlds, which the market has considered a potential threat to traditional game engines and developers' business models.
Orlen and JSW are in decline
Orlen's shareholders had no reason to be satisfied (-2%). The price was weighed down by the information about the reduced recommendation from Oddo BHF to “below market” with a target price of PLN 94. The company also announced its withdrawal from the transaction with Poczta Polska regarding Orlen Paczka.
In the mWIG40 index, the weakest link was JSW, which dropped by 16.77%. This is a painful correction after a month-long rally in which the company gained 39%. In the background there are negotiations with the company's employees regarding the reduction of employee benefits in order to improve the company's financial liquidity.
