A two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Council begins on Tuesday, which will decide on the NBP interest rates. According to Adam Antoniak, much depends on how the Monetary Policy Council will react to the latest inflation data. “Even in December, the statement of members of the Monetary Policy Council was dominated by the message that there would be a pause in its activities at the beginning of the year,” says the expert in an interview with PAP. But The estimated inflation data for December, published by the Central Statistical Office on New Year's Eve, turned out to be a surprise for the market. And as a result, after the New Year, MPC representatives admitted that a discussion on rate cuts was possible at the January meeting.
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35 percent chances of reducing interest rates
On the last day of December 2025, the Central Statistical Office published the preliminary inflation estimate for this month. It shows that it amounted to 2.4%. on an annual basis, so it was lower than in November, when it amounted to 2.5%.
“In our opinion, a pause in rate cuts is more likely, but recently the MPC's communication has not been consistent with the decisions it makes, because the Council was usually very sensitive to inflation data,” said an ING BSK economist. “Therefore, we do not rule out that the Monetary Policy Council will reduce rates, and we estimate the probability of such a decision at 35 percent.” – he added.
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In his opinion, however, later in 2026, the Monetary Policy Council will return to reducing interest rates.
“We expect three interest rate cuts this year, as a result of which the NBP reference rate will drop from the current 4% to 3.25%. It is possible that there will be more cuts if inflation turns out to be lower than expected. Inflation prospects are good, because in our opinion, inflation will be below the NBP target at least until the middle of the year,” said Adam Antoniak.
