“He's in an aggressive mood.” Trump reaches for Greenland, Europe has four options. “You may get caught in a trap”
Europeans did not previously realize that Donald Trump's threats to take over Greenland were serious. Now politicians no longer ignore the US president. Instead they are desperately looking for a plan to stop him from carrying out his plans.
“We must be ready for a direct confrontation with Trump,” an EU diplomat briefed on the ongoing talks tells POLITICO. “He is in an aggressive mood and we have to be prepared.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday, January 7 that he planned to discuss the issue with Danish officials next week takeover of Greenland by the United States. The White House said Trump would prefer to take over the territory through negotiations and is considering buying the island — but it is also possible to take it over by military force. This would destroy the world order as we know it. However, Europe has the means to put pressure on Trump — and at the same time the opportunity to get out of this situation.
POLITICO spoke to NATO officials, diplomats, experts and insiders to find out how Europe could stop the US president from taking such far-reaching steps — and what its options are if it happens. The interviewees were provided with anonymity so that they could freely express their opinions.
As diplomatic activity intensifies in Europe, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said he and his German and Polish counterparts have already discussed a common European response to Trump's threats.
“The question at stake is how Europe, the EU, can be strengthened to stop threats and attacks on its security and interests,” Barrot told reporters. “Greenland is not for sale and cannot be taken over… so the threats must stop.”
— Everyone is very surprised and doesn't know what tools we actually have, says a former Danish MP in an interview with POLITICO. “Nobody really knows what to do because Americans can do whatever they want. But we need answers to these questions immediately. We can't wait three, five or seven years.”
From conversations that POLITICO conducted with European officials, three options emerge for Europe to stop Trump.
Possibility first. Finding a compromise
Trump says Greenland is crucial to U.S. security and accuses Denmark of not doing enough to protect the island from growing military activity by China and Russia in the Arctic.
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The quickest way out of this situation is probably to negotiate an agreement that allows Trump to emerge from the talks with something he can present as a success — and allows Denmark and Greenland to save face.
A former senior NATO official suggested the alliance could mediate between Greenland, Denmark and the United States, as it did in disputes between alliance members Turkey and Greece.
US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker said on Wednesday, January 7, that Trump and his advisers do not believe Greenland is adequately secured:
As the ice melts and routes open in the Arctic and the Far North… Greenland becomes a very serious threat to the security of the continental United States.
A woman looks at the landscape in Nuuk, Greenland (illustrative photo)Leon Neal / Staff / Getty Images
NATO allies are also considering new proposals for Trump that could strengthen Greenland's security — despite the widespread belief that any direct threats to the territory from Russian and Chinese ships are overblown.
According to three NATO diplomats, the alliance should consider, among other things, accelerating Arctic defense spending, conducting more military exercises in the region and sending troops to secure Greenland and reassure the United States if necessary.
The two diplomats told POLITICO that the alliance should also be open to creating an “Arctic Sentry” program — shifting its military resources to the region — similar to the “Eastern Sentry” and “Baltic Sentry” initiatives.
— Everything that can be done to strengthen the alliance's presence near Greenland and meet Trump's demands should be used to the maximum extent, says one of the NATO diplomats quoted above in an interview with POLITICO.
Trump also says he wants Greenland because of its vast mineral deposits and potential oil and gas reserves. But there is a reason why Greenland's potential remains largely untapped: extracting raw materials from its inhospitable terrain is difficult and very expensive, making it less competitive than imports from China.
Danish officials say they have tried for years to persuade investors to invest in Greenland, but their European partners have not been convinced — although an EU diplomat familiar with the matter said there are signs of a change in attitude on the part of Europeans.
Second possibility. Give a lot of money to Greenland
The Trump administration supported the Greenland independence movement. The argument is that if the Arctic territory leaves the Kingdom of Denmark and signs an agreement with the United States, it will be flooded with American dollars.
Trump has repeatedly refused to rule out using military force to take over Greenland — but insists he wants it to happen voluntarily. The EU and Denmark are trying to convince the island's inhabitants that they can offer them better conditions.
According to a draft European Commission proposal published in September, Brussels plans to more than double spending on Greenland from 2028 as part of long-term budget plans drawn up after Trump began making claims on the island.
Under the plans, which are subject to further negotiations between member states, the EU would almost double spending on Greenland to EUR 530 million (approx. PLN 2 billion, 231 million, 650 thousand at the current exchange rate) over a seven-year period, starting in 2028. This would be in addition to the funds that Denmark transfers to Greenland under the agreement with this self-governing territory.
According to the same document, Greenland will also be able to apply for an additional EUR 44 million (PLN 185,270,000) of EU funding for remote territories related to European countries.
Danish and European support is currently mainly focused on social welfare, health care, education and the ecological transformation of the territory. In line with new spending plans this scope will be expanded to include the development of the island's ability to extract mineral resources.
— We have a lot of people living below the poverty line, Greenland's infrastructure is neglected, and our resources are extracted mainly for no benefit to Greenland, primarily for the benefit of Danish companies, says Kuno Fencker, a Greenlandic opposition MP supporting the island's independence.
Nuuk, the capital of Greenland (illustrative photo)Marli Miller/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images/Getty Images
An attractive offer from Denmark and the EU may be enough to keep Greenlanders out of America's reach.
Possibility three. Economic retaliation
“Since Trump's first term, there has been a lot of effort to rethink how to keep Europe, the Nordics and the Arctic safe without the active participation of the United States,” said Thomas Crosbie, a military expert at the Royal Danish Defense Academy, which provides training and education for the Danish armed forces.
— It's difficult, but possible. But I don't know if anyone has seriously considered keeping Europe safe from America. “It's just crazy,” Crosbie added.
The EU has one powerful policy tool it could use to stop Trump: an anti-coercion instrument, the “trade bazooka” created after Trump's first term, which allows the EU to retaliate against trade discrimination.
The EU threatened to use it after Trump imposed tariffs on European countries, but shelved it in July after an agreement was reached between the two sides. As the United States continues to impose tariffs on the EU, Brussels may use the bazooka again.
— The value of our exports to the United States is just over EUR 600 billion (approx. PLN 2 trillion, 526,400 million), and in the case of approximately one third of these goods we have over 50%. market share. It is absolutely clear that it is also the power that we have – says Bernd Lange, chairman of the European Parliament's trade committee.
However, Trump would have to believe that the EU is taking the matter seriously, given that all its harsh declarations have so far had no effect.
Possibility four. Ground forces
If the United States decides to take over Greenland by military force, Europeans will be powerless to prevent it.
– They don't intend to [Europejczycy] launch a pre-emptive attack on the Americans before they take over Greenland because it would be tantamount to a declaration of war, said Crosbie, the Danish military expert. “But in terms of first mover response, it really depends. If the Americans send a very small group of people, you could try to arrest them because that would be a crime.”
The situation would be different if the United States took decisive action.
From a legal point of view, it is possible that Denmark would be forced to take military action. According to an order from 1952, “in the event of an attack on Danish territory” soldiers should “fight immediately, without waiting for orders.”
— European countries should consider sending troops to Greenland — if Denmark asks — to increase the potential costs of U.S. military action, an EU diplomat tells POLITICO, repeating suggestions that Berlin and Paris could send military forces. While these forces would likely be unable to resist a U.S. invasion, they could act as a deterrent.
– You may be trapped; certain groups of people will physically get in the way [Amerykanom]similar to the situation in Tiananmen Square [gdzie studenci protestowali przeciwko chińskim władzom]which would potentially prompt the military [amerykańskie] to use violence or withdraw, says Crosbie of such a scenario.
The expert adds that the approach described above would involve high costs for Europe. “It is quite possible that people will die as a result of trying to prevent American claims on Greenland.”
