How Donald Trump can get Greenland in four steps. To Denmark's dismay, the process appears to have already begun

Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire for the United States to take control of Greenland. The problem is that Greenland already belongs to the Kingdom of Denmark, and the majority of the local population does not want to become part of the United States.

Trump has started the process of taking over Greenland/FOTO:X

A scenario of direct military intervention, with the occupation of the capital Nuuk, seems unlikely at first glance. However, European experts and security officials warn that there is a gradual and realistic way in which this goal could be achieved. And, according to them, the Trump administration would have already traveled part of this road, writes politico.eu.

For some European leaders, the strategy evokes methods previously used by Russian President Vladimir Putin to expand geopolitical influence.

POLITICO spoke with nine EU officials, NATO experts, diplomats and defense experts to analyze possible scenarios of a US takeover of the resource-rich Arctic island of major strategic importance.

“Five helicopters might be enough. Not many troops would be needed,” said a Danish politician on the condition of anonymity. “There would be nothing the Greenlanders could do.”

Step 1: An influence campaign to push for Greenlandic independence

Shortly after returning to power, the Trump administration began publicly supporting the idea of ​​independence for Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory under the Danish crown. An independent Greenland could strike direct deals with Washington, something impossible under the current constitutional framework, which requires Copenhagen's approval.

Achieving independence would require a referendum, followed by negotiations between Nuuk and Copenhagen. According to a 2025 poll, 56% of Greenlanders would vote in favor of independence, while 28% would oppose it.

Danish media reported that American citizens with close ties to Trump would have carried out discreet influence operations on the island. The Danish Intelligence Service (PET) has warned that Greenland is “the target of influence campaigns of various kinds”.

Digital policy expert Felix Kartte, adviser to the European institutions, compared the situation to the tactics used by Russia in Eastern Europe.

“It's not just about convincing voters“, he explains, “but about creating the impression that a certain option is inevitable, bigger and more popular than it really is.”

Recent statements by some US officials seem to support this approach. Stephen Miller, Trump's deputy chief of staff, said that “no one is going to fight the US militarily over the future of Greenland.”

In March, Vice President JD Vance said in Nuuk that “the people of Greenland have the right to self-determination” and that the United States is “the only nation that will respect their sovereignty and security.”

Step 2: An attractive offer for Greenland

If an independence referendum were to succeed, the next step would be to integrate Greenland into the American sphere of influence.

The idea of ​​turning Greenland into an American state has been floated by people close to the president, but is widely rejected. A poll shows that 85% of Greenlanders oppose joining the US.

One alternative being discussed is signing a Compact of Free Association (COFA), a type of agreement in which the US provides protection, services and economic access in exchange for total freedom of military operation. Such agreements already exist with Micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau.

Kuno Fencker, a pro-independence Greenlandic lawmaker, says Greenland does not want US territory but is open to bilateral arrangements.

“Denmark saw us as a burden. The United States says they need us. That's a significant difference”he states.

However, experts warn that Greenland may see few real benefits. Professor Thomas Crosbie of the Royal Danish Defense College says Trump has a history of lopsided deals.

“I don't see any long-term benefits for the Greenlandic people, other than temporary symbolic satisfaction.”

Step 3: Convincing Europe

The European Union and Denmark's allies would oppose any attempt to break away from Greenland. But some European diplomats believe the Trump administration could use Ukraine as a bargaining chip.

One scenario discussed unofficially involves offering increased security guarantees to Ukraine in exchange for accepting an expanded American role in Greenland.

Although controversial, such a solution might be preferable to a direct confrontation with Washington, which could respond with sanctions or block peace talks.

Step 4: Military intervention

Should Greenland or Denmark refuse, the option of force remains.

Military experts say the US could take control quickly. Greenland has no army of its own and the Danish military presence is limited.

According to researcher Lin Mortensgaard, the US could control the capital of Nuuk “in less than 30 minutes”.

Such action would have no legal basis and would require the approval of the US Congress for a prolonged occupation. It would also call into question the very existence of NATO.

“It would mean the end of the Alliance”warns Romain Chuffart from the Arctic Institute.

For now, NATO officials are trying to minimize the risks. “We are far from such a scenario,” says a senior diplomat. “There will be difficult negotiations, but we are not close to a hostile takeover.”