We have been observing friction in the current ruling coalition basically since its inception. The disputes concerned, among others: support for borrowers or partnership issues. And what will happen in 2026?
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Poll – Will the government survive 2026?
The survey, published on the Wirtualna Polska website, asked respondents whether they believed the ruling coalition (KO, Trzecia Droga, Left) would survive 2026 unchanged.
The results are as follows:
- 51.3 percent respondents believe that the ruling coalition (KO, Trzecia Droga, Left) will survive 2026 with an unchanged composition:
— 13.4 percent — definitely yes
— 37.9 percent — probably yes
- 32.1 percent respondents predict the collapse or reconstruction of the government:
— 10.0 percent — definitely yes (pessimists)
— 22.1 percent — probably yes
- 16.6 percent respondents cannot assess whether the government will maintain its current formula.
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Optimism among coalition voters, skepticism among opposition ranks
The study indicates that as many as 86 percent voters supporting the ruling parties (KO, Trzecia Droga, Left) believe in the durability of the alliance until 2026. Importantly, there are almost no pessimists in this group – only 9%. respondents allow for the possibility of changes in the composition of the government.
The situation is different among opposition supporters (PiS, Konfederacja). Skepticism prevails here – 46%. respondents believe that the ruling coalition will not last until the end of 2026. Nevertheless, 36 percent opposition voters admit that Donald Tusk's government has a chance to survive in its current shape.
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“The biggest mystery remains the 'other voters'. This is the group most uncertain about the future – as many as 31 percent of them have no opinion on the fate of the government. Among those who expressed an opinion, skeptics (39 percent) prevail over optimists (30 percent),” we read in the analysis by Wirtualna Polska.
The survey was conducted by the United Surveys by IBRiS institute on behalf of Wirtualna Polska. The study was carried out on December 19–21, 2025, using the mixed CATI method (telephone interviews) and CAWI (online surveys) on a sample of N=1,000 people.
