Russia's losses are mounting at an unprecedented rate. BBC analysis points to a new record number of victims
Losses suffered by the Russian army in the war in Ukraine are increasing at an accelerating rate, according to a BBC analysis based on open sources in Russia and data collected from cemeteries.
Russian soldiers on the front in Ukraine/PHOTO: Profimedia
In 2025, about 40% more obituaries of killed servicemen were published in the Russian public space than in the previous year. Since the beginning of the large-scale invasion, the deaths of almost 160,000 Russian citizens could be confirmed from open sources. However, military experts warn that this figure represents only around 40% of the real losses.
These estimates do not include the losses of fighters from the so-called “people's militias” of the separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, which the BBC puts at another 21,000–23,500 dead.
The analysis shows that a sharp increase in the number of obituaries was recorded in the autumn, immediately after the cancellation of the planned second summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, which was supposed to take place in Budapest. In October and November, an average of 322 obituaries were published in Russia per day – twice as many as in 2024.
BBC journalists believe that this dynamic could indicate an acceleration of Russian military operations, with the Kremlin trying to occupy as much Ukrainian territory as possible to use possible gains as leverage in negotiations with the United States on a possible peace agreement.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently said that the Russian military is currently losing about 31,000 soldiers per month, not counting the wounded.
The data is also supported by the Ukrainian project “I want to live”, which estimates that in 2025 alone, Russia lost more than 281,000 soldiers: more than 86,000 killed, about 34,000 missing and about 158,000 wounded. Massive losses were also recorded among military equipment: more than 13,000 units were completely destroyed and almost 50,000 damaged.
Ukraine has set a record for attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure
In parallel with the human losses, Russia is facing increasing pressure on its energy sector. According to the Bloomberg agency, in December Ukraine launched the largest number of attacks on Russian energy infrastructure since the beginning of the war.
At least 24 attacks targeted oil refineries, oil tankers, maritime assets and major transportation pipelines. Their aim was to weaken Russia's ability to export energy – one of the main sources of financing the war.
Although Moscow continues to export significant volumes of oil, oil and gas revenues are declining sharply. The Russian government estimates that, this year, these revenues will represent only 23% of the state budget – the lowest level ever recorded.
A special emphasis was placed on maritime infrastructure. During December, Ukraine repeatedly struck oil and gas fields operated by Lukoil in the Caspian Sea. The Russian ports of Tamani and Rostov were also attacked, where several oil tanks were engulfed in flames. Kiev also continued its strikes on Russia's so-called “shadow fleet”.
Deep inside Russian territory, targets included fuel refineries. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine announced that during an attack on the Novoshakhtinsk refinery, Storm Shadow cruise missiles were used for the first time.
At the same time, Russia continues to hit Ukraine's energy and civilian infrastructure. In the middle of winter, thousands of people are left without electricity, water and heating as a result of the bombing.
The head of Ukraine's military intelligence service, Kirilo Budanov, previously said that attacks on energy infrastructure are causing greater financial losses to Russia than the totality of international sanctions. According to him, Ukraine has already managed to decommission about 20% of Russia's refining capacity, and next year the percentage could reach 30%.
