Up to EUR 20 billion from KPO in one year. Important forecast for Poland

In 2026, Poland may receive a total of approximately 2.5%. GDP more EU funds than in 2025, and almost half of this increase will be non-repayable grants – Citi Handlowy analysts indicated in the report. In their opinion, with such an impulse, approximately 10% seems achievable. investment growth unless the private sector sharply reduces its expenditure.

Citi Handlowy bank analysts indicated in the report that while for most of 2025 the growth of the Polish economy was driven mainly by consumption, next year investments should play a greater role than before, which will be contributed to by the extraordinary accumulation of the inflow of EU funds.

They noted that in addition to the KPO and cohesion funds, from next year Poland will also be a beneficiary of the new SAFE loan instrumentwhose task is to support investments in projects related to defense or increasing the EU's resilience to external threats.

“Since this is a new instrument, it is not yet known at what pace Poland will be able to use it. However, it is known that Poland may receive EUR 6.6 billion in pre-financing at the beginning of the year. In total, the total amount of EU funds that may reach Poland in 2026 will be approximately 2.5%. GDP higher than in 2025 and almost half of this increase will be non-repayable grants. With such an impulse, investments will most likely accelerate significantly, and our forecast for their growth will be 7.8%. it seems downright conservative. The result is around 10%. seems achievable unless the private sector dramatically reduces its investment outlays,” they estimated.

Experts assessed that so far the use of EU funds has left much to be desired, among others due to the very poor beginnings related to the blocking of access to them before 2024, and next year several factors will contribute to improving the prospects for the inflow of funds.

“First of all, 2026 is to be the last year in which it will be possible to use funds from the KPO. In the past, government representatives mentioned the potential possibility of extending the deadlines, but so far there have been no details. KPO beneficiaries must therefore plan their activities in order to meet the deadline of the end of August 2026. In total, this means that by the end of the year Poland may receive up to approximately EUR 20 billion in connection with the implementation of the tasks set out in the National Reconstruction Plan, which would mean more than tripling compared to the past year. – they added.

In their opinion, an additional growth impulse should come from gradually accelerating investments financed from cohesion funds.

“These are the same funds that have been going to Poland for the last two decades, and which have recently been overshadowed by the KPO. Taking into account the cyclical nature of cohesion funds, in our opinion, Poland may receive several billion euros from these funds next year, which is about half more than in 2025,” they pointed out. (PAP Business)

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