2025-12-24 06:00
publication
2025-12-24 06:00
Christmas has a clear and seasonal impact on GDP – believe VeloBank analysts. They estimate that shopping in the pre-Christmas period accounts for approximately 10%. annual trade activity, which translates into an increase in GDP dynamics in the fourth quarter by 0.5 percentage points, i.e. approximately PLN 6 billion.
“The positive impact on the economy results from increased activity in key sectors for domestic production and services, such as retail trade, transport, logistics and catering. Higher sales, a larger number of transactions and an increase in demand for logistics services lead to an increase in added value in the economy – indicated the authors of the report. They added that the increased activity is also visible on the side of market services, e.g. ordering food and transport, which further strengthens the GDP result at the end of the year.
Analysts estimated that the scale of the seasonal increase is so large that the pre-Christmas period is responsible for approximately 0.3-0.7 percentage points. higher GDP growth at the end of the year, which confirms the special importance of the fourth quarter in the annual economic growth profile in Poland. Translating this into monetary value, they stated that it is from PLN 3.3 to 7.8 billion of the value generated for the Polish economy. They set the central value of the impact of holidays at 0.5 percentage points, or PLN 5.6 billion.
“However, the Christmas recovery is not permanent. The increase in activity is concentrated in December, and in the first months of the following year it normalizes, visible in the lower GDP dynamics after seasonality,” they said. (PAP)
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