US intelligence reports paint a very different picture of Putin's real war aims than Trump publicly claims

U.S. intelligence reports continue to warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin plans to conquer all of Ukraine and reclaim parts of Europe that belonged to the former Soviet empire, six sources familiar with U.S. intelligence agencies said, even as negotiators are now seeking a solution to end the war that would leave Russia with less territory than it claims.

The reports paint a starkly different picture from the one publicly portrayed by US President Donald Trump and his Ukraine peace negotiators, who have said Putin wants to end the conflict. The most recent of the reports dates back to late September, according to one of the sources.

Also, intelligence information contradicts the Russian leader's claims that Moscow is not a threat to Europe.

The US conclusions have been consistent since Putin launched the full-scale invasion in 2022. They largely align with the views of European leaders and intelligence agencies, according to which Putin covets all of Ukraine and the territories of former Soviet bloc states, which now belong to some NATO member states, the sources cited by Reuters said.

“Intelligence services have always said that Putin wants more,” Mike Quigley, a Democratic member of the House Intelligence Committee, said in an interview with the news agency. “The Europeans are convinced of this. The Poles are absolutely convinced of this. The Baltic countries believe they are the first” to be attacked, Quigley said.

Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukraine's territory, including most of Luhansk and Donetsk (provinces that form the industrial heartland of Donbass), parts of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, as well as Crimea, the strategic Black Sea peninsula.

Putin claims that the Crimean peninsula and all four annexed regions belong to Russia. Trump is pressing Kiev to withdraw its forces from the small part of Donetsk it still controls as part of a proposed peace deal, according to two sources familiar with the matter, a demand that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and most Ukrainians reject.

“The president's team has made tremendous progress in ending the war,” and Trump assesses that a peace deal “is closer than ever,” a White House official said, without referring to the intelligence reports.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the CIA and the Russian Embassy did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Progress on security safeguards

Trump's negotiators — his son-in-law Jared Kushner and billionaire real estate developer Steve Witkoff — have been negotiating the 20-point peace plan with Ukrainian, Russian and European officials for weeks.

Although US officials say they have made progress, major differences remain on territorial issues.

Kushner and Witkoff met with Ukrainian negotiators in Miami on Friday and are due to hold talks with Russian representatives this weekend, a White House official said.

American, Ukrainian and European negotiators reached a broad consensus at talks in Berlin on Monday on what four European diplomats and two sources familiar with the matter described as “robust” US-backed guarantees on Ukraine's security against future Russian aggression.

A source and a diplomat said those guarantees depended on Zelenskiy agreeing to cede territory to Russia. But other diplomats said that was not the case and that alternatives were still being considered, as Zelenskiy ruled out ceding territory.

The diplomats quoted also said the guarantees, which would come into effect after a peace deal is signed, would see the deployment of mostly European security forces in neighboring countries and Ukraine, far from the front lines, to help repel any future attack by Russia.

The Ukrainian army would have a maximum number of 800,000 soldiers, said the source cited by Reuters. But several diplomats have said Russia wants a smaller maximum number of Ukrainian troops, and the Americans are open to the idea.

The US would provide intelligence and other forms of support, and the package would be ratified by the US Senate, the people said. According to two sources familiar with the talks, Washington's plan would also include US-backed air patrols over Ukraine.

On Thursday, Zelenskiy sounded cautious about the proposals, saying: “There is one question I still cannot find an answer to: what will these security guarantees actually do?”

And it is deeply uncertain whether Putin will agree to such guarantees, as he has repeatedly rejected the deployment of foreign troops to Ukraine.

Moscow maintains its territorial claims

On Friday, Putin offered no compromise, although he said at his annual press conference that he was ready to discuss peace.

He stated that his terms would have to be met, as his forces had advanced 6,000 square kilometers (2,300 sq mi) this year.

It is not clear how US officials have responded to Putin's requests. Witkoff has previously suggested that Russia has the right to claim the four Ukrainian regions and Crimea.

Some Trump administration officials have acknowledged that Putin may be willing to settle for less than his original goal of conquering Ukraine.

“I don't know if Putin wants to make a deal or if Putin wants to take over the whole country. Those are things he has said openly,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at a press conference on Friday.

“We know what (the Russians, no) originally wanted to achieve when the war started. They did not achieve those goals,” added the head of US diplomacy.