It's time to face the facts – soberly, without illusions, despite the pain. Ukraine will lose the war with Russia. The country is stuck in a war of attrition with the Russian aggressor, which slowly but surely taking away his strength.
A war of attrition can be won. The winner is the one who lasts longer. It must be able to constantly send new soldiers to the front and deliver new weapons. Russia has enough people and equipmentalthough its losses, according to estimates, amount to millions. Ukraine does not have such capabilities – neither militarily, nor socially, nor financially. And this despite Europeans' sincere efforts to support Kyiv.
Since the end of 2024, the United States has refused to provide further aid promises to Ukraine. Between 2022 and 2024, annual military aid reached EUR 41.6 billion [według obecnego kursu ok. 175 mld zł]. According to data from the Institute of the World Economy in Kiel, in 2025, only EUR 32.5 billion was allocated for military purposes [ok. 137 mld zł].
Moreover, Kiev is at risk of state bankruptcy. Europeans have donated EUR 20 billion over almost four years [ok. 84 mld zł] economic aid under bilateral agreements. According to the International Monetary Fund this is only one third of the amount Ukraine needs to function as a state. New loan from the EU in the amount of EUR 90 billion [ok. 380 mld zł] will give Kiev some breathing space for some time. But what will happen next?
Putin cold-bloodedly observes Europe's weakness
The war will not end after these events either. Russia will continue to fight, regardless of how satisfied Europeans are with their own declarations. This may be considered ridiculous and absurd (because it is!), but Moscow treats its war of aggression against Ukraine as a fight for its own survival. She feels cornered by NATO, believes that the enlargement of the Atlantic Alliance is tightening the noose around her, and she has no intention of holding back – if necessary, she will move forward, meter by meter, year by year. This is what it will look like.
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Doctors know well: even if a person suffering from paranoia is calmly and logically explained that his fears are groundless, he will not give up his delusions, no matter how much he suffers from them.
Russia is in a bad situation, there is no doubt about it. Economic sanctions work and hit the country hard. Except he who truly believes he is in danger of death does not wonder how much money he has left in his account. Perhaps the situation of the military giant and economic dwarf Russia will continue to deteriorate, but the Kremlin and Putin do not care.
Putin despises Europe and the European Union. Hatred, unlike love, sharpens the view of another person. Putin cold-blooded with icy indifference that Europe remains in the background militarily, and its only strength is the belief in its own slogans. He looks at disputes within the EU with a distance. Not only Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, but also Spain and Portugal are uncertain about Ukraine and Russia.
France, on the other hand, is struggling with economic problems and is unable to offer more support. At the same time, the ruler from the Kremlin is watching the host of the White House. He knows that Donald Trump is seeking peace — even if it comes at the expense of Ukraine. In this conflict of attrition between Russia and Ukraine, it will do nothing or almost nothing to support Kiev.
In short, time is running out for Ukraine. For Europeans too. There is only one hope: Vladimir Putin knows that he is too weak to keep all of Ukraine in his hands permanently. An occupation of the entire country would mean that the western regions would become the arena of guerrilla warfare, and hundreds of thousands of young people would flee to the West. For already impoverished Russia, this would be another burden related to the “brain drain” that the Kremlin will not be able to bear in the long run. This can be an argument during negotiations to prevent the worst.
The US will not leave Europe, but it will weaken it
Will the West emerge weakened at the end of the war? Yes. Unfortunately yes. His credibility will be damaged. Worse yet, another problem arises: The United States will be under Donald Trump weaken NATO— which Putin likes very much — even if Secretary General Mark Rutte doubles down in the White House.
Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO, during a meeting with Donald Trump, President of the USA. Washington, October 22, 2025CNP/AdMedia/PAP
Americans – despite their threats – will never leave Europe. They need bases here to be able to quickly operate in the Middle East. But they will allow Europeans to lose their importance in NATO. It's high time for at least the so-called the hard core of Europe not only considered this scenario, but began to implement it.
The coming year will be exceptionally difficult. The facts are depressing – especially just before Christmas. But, as Thomas Mann wrote: “In the long run, a hard truth is better than a useful lie.”
I’m Ashley Davis as an editor, I’m committed to upholding the highest standards of integrity and accuracy in every piece we publish. My work is driven by curiosity, a passion for truth, and a belief that journalism plays a crucial role in shaping public discourse. I strive to tell stories that not only inform but also inspire action and conversation.
